USDINR opened higher at 73.13 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.04-73.16 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.04 , gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.92. RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.92 on 25/01. Feb USD/INR closed at 73.27, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.22. Feb Euro/INR closed at 88.70, GBP/INR at 100.10 and Yen/INR at 70.29.
FII’S nett bought Rs 23853 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 4874 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 235645 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 26663 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.07% y’day. DOW climbed 300 points( 0.99%).Nikkei declined 1.53% and Hang seng declined 2.55% .
Euro is now at 1.2099,Pound at 1.3670,Yen at 104.27.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1845 and WT1Crude at USD 52.60/Brent at USD 55.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.05% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: US GDP (advance estimate) grew at 4% q/q, missing expectations. Global stocks suffered major rout in last few days. Fed painted a cautious picture on economy. Fed reiterated: “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.”
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims was reported at 847k, and New home sales dipped to 842k.
Friday’s calendar: – US personal income, spending, core PCE index and pending home sales.
| USD/INR | 73.16 | 73.04 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2115 | 1.2142 | 1.2079 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3725 | 1.3745 | 1.3630 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 104.46 | 104.14 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2114 | 1.2149 | 1.2177 | 1.2211 | 1.2086 | 1.2051 | 1.2023 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3700 | 1.3770 | 1.3815 | 1.3885 | 1.3665 | 1.3585 | 1.3540 |
| USD/JPY | 104.30
|
104.46 | 104.63 | 104.79 | 104.14 | 103.97
|
103.81
|
| USD/INR | 73.08 | 73.12 | 73.20 | 73 | 72.96 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2050/1.1950 | 1.2220 | SIDE | UP>1.2235 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3750 | UP | DN<1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 102.60 | 104.40 | DN | UP>104.40 |
| USD/INR | 72.75 | 73.50/73.65 | DN | SIDE>73.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8755 | 0.8990/0.9030 | DN | UP>0.9030 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.13. 50 day moving average is at 73.52.200 day moving average is at 74.58. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.75 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Feb contract are:
PP:73.28,S1:73.14, S2:73.01, R1:73.41, R2: 73.55.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 moving average, but still above 50 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1,2050/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.40/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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