USDINR opened at 72.95 on Monday and the pair traded in the 72.88-72.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.95 , loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 72.97. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.03 on 22/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 72.93, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.99. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.68, GBP/INR at 99.83 and Yen/INR at 70.27.
FII’S nett bought Rs 23853 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 4874 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 235645 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 26663 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.93% on Monday. DOW declined 22 points( 0.07%).Nikkei declined 0.96% and Hang seng declined 2.55% .
Euro is now at 1.2163,Pound at 1.3743,Yen at 103.66.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1847 and WT1Crude at USD 52.80/Brent at USD 55.80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.04% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: Focus is on US Fed meeting. IMF has revised Indian GDP growth rate to 11.5% for next fiscal. Economy is expect to contract by -8% this year.
Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 1% m/m and consumer confidence climbed to 89.3.
-German Ifo survey dipped to 90.1.
-UK claimant count change was reported at 7k and unemployment rate dipped to 5%.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US durables order
-German Gfk sentiment survey
| USD/INR | 72.97 | 72.88 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2163 | 1.2176 | 1.2108 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3743 | 1.3745 | 1.3610 |
| USD/JPY | 103.66 | 103.83 | 103.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2149 | 1.2190 | 1.2217 | 1.2258 | 1.2122 | 1.2081 | 1.2054 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3699 | 1.3788 | 1.3834 | 1.3923 | 1.3653 | 1.3564 | 1.3518 |
| USD/JPY | 103.66
|
103.76 | 103.94 | 104.04 | 103.49 | 103.38
|
103.21
|
| USD/INR | 72.93 | 72.98 | 73.02 | 72.89 | 72.84 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2050/1.1950 | 1.2220 | SIDE | UP>1.2235 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3450 | 1.3750 | UP | DN<1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 102.60 | 104.40 | DN | UP>104.40 |
| USD/INR | 72.90 | 73.50/73.65 | DN | SIDE>73.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8755 | 0.8990/0.9030 | DN | UP>0.9030 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.15. 50 day moving average is at 73.58.200 day moving average is at 74.58. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.90 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP:72.95,S1:72.89, S2:72.85, R1:72.99, R2: 73.05.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 moving average, but still above 50 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1,2050/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.40/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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