USDINR opened at 73.03 on Friday and the pair traded in the 72.97-73.09 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.97 , loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 73. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.12 on 20/01Jan USD/INR closed at 72.99, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.03. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.88, GBP/INR at 99.74 and Yen/INR at 70.41. Rupee gains is stemmed by USD buying by PSU banks. Indian FX reserves stands at USD 584 bn as on Jan 15 th.

FII’S nett bought Rs 23853 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 4874 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 235645 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  26663 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.50% on Friday. DOW declined 179 points( 0.57%).Nikkei declined 0.44% and Hang seng declined 1.60% .

Euro closed the week at 1.2167,Pound at 1.3684,Yen at 103.77.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1855 and WT1Crude at USD 52/Brent at USD 55.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.09% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.

Economic news: Focus will be on US Fed meeting and passage of new US stimulus plan. Tech companies spearheaded US stocks rally. Indian Sensex crossed 50k level. Corporate earning reporting season is in full swing. Indian Budget will be the focus in coming weeks.

 Data highlights: – US Existing home sales climbed to 6.76 mn,

-EU PMI(mfrg) climbed to 54.7. and PMI(services) was in contraction mode at 45.

-UK retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m. PMI(mfrg) declined to 52.9. PMI(services) declined steeply to 38.8.

Monday’s calendar: – German Ifo survey.

USD/INR   73.09 72.97
EUR/USD 1.2167 1.2191 1.2151
GBP/USD 1.3684 1.3738 1.3635
USD/JPY 103.77 103.89 103.47

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2169 1.2188  1.2209    1.2147 1.2129  
GBP/USD 1.3685 1.3736  1.3788   1.3632 1.3582  
USD/JPY 103.71


103.95  104.13   103.53 103.29




USD/INR 73.01 73.05 73.13   72.93 72.89


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.2050/1.1950 1.2220 SIDE UP>1.2235
GBP/USD 1.3450 1.3750 UP DN<1.3450
USD/JPY 102.60 104.40 DN UP>104.40
USD/INR 72.90 73.50/73.65 DN SIDE>73.95
USD/CHF 0.8755 0.8990/0.9030 DN UP>0.9030

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.18. 50 day moving average is at 73.61.200 day moving average is at 74.58. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.50. Important support is at 72.90 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP:73.04,S1:72.89, S2:72.80, R1:73.14, R2: 73.28.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USDThe pair is below 20 moving average, but still above 50 and 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1,2050/1.1950. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3450 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3745.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.40/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.

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