USDINR opened at 72.97 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.94-73.02 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73 , loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.02. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.12 on 20/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 73.03, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.19. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.68, GBP/INR at 100.19 and Yen/INR at 70.61.
FII’S nett bought Rs 17873 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 3146 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 229666 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 24935 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.37% y’day. DOW declined 12 points( 0.04%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.82% and Hang seng declined 0.12% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.2169,Pound at 1.3679,Yen at 103.54.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1867 and WT1Crude at USD 53/Brent at USD 56.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.12% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: ECB left the “very accommodative monetary policy stance” unchanged as widely expected. Main refinancing rate was held at 0.00%, marginal lending rate a and deposit rate at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. Envelope of the “pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)” is kept at EUR 1850B, running through at least March 2022. Asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at monthly net purchase of EUR 20B.
Bank of Japan left all the stimulus measures intact. The policy rate stays unchanged at -0.1%, while asset purchases will continue in order to keep the 10-year JGB yields at around 0% (yield curve control).
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims was reported at 900k, building permits was higher at 1.71 mn and housing starts climbed to 1.67 mn.
Friday’s calendar: -US Existing home sales
-EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
-UK retail sales.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.21. 50 day moving average is at 73.63.200 day moving average is at 74.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.90. Important support is at 72.90 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP:73,S1:72.94, S2:72.86, R1:73.08, R2: 73.14.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 and 50 moving averages, but still above 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1.1945. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3710 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.50/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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