USDINR opened at 73.09 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73-73.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.07 , gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.15 on 15/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 73.14, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.13. Jan Euro/INR closed at 88.79, GBP/INR at 99.80 and Yen/INR at 70.56.

FII’S nett bought Rs 17873 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett sold Rs 3146 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 229666 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  24935 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.11% on Friday.DOW declined 177 points (0.56%).Nikkei declined 0.62% and Hang seng climbed 0.77% y’day

Euro closed the week at 1.2078,Pound at 1.3586,Yen at 103.87.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1827 and WT1Crude at USD 52/Brent at USD 54.85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.08% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.98%.

Economic news: Indian exports bounced back in Dec to clock USD 27.2 bn. Imports grew 7.6% to USD 42.6 bn. Imports growth reflects pickup in economic activity. BSE sensex is close to 50k level. Rupee gained despite USD’S last week gain against Euro.

In US,sooner-than-anticipated rate hikes or asset purchase tapering has recently risen to the fore alongside vaccine deployment, additional fiscal relief and overall brighter prospects for economic growth. Several Fed officials pushed back on that notion this week. USD’S gain could be attributed to this debate.

 Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.4% m/m. Weekly jobless claims surged to 965k.

-US Core retail sales declined -1.4% m/m. PPI climbed 0.3% m/m.

-US industrial production climbed 1.6% m/m.

-EU industrial production climbed 2.5% m/m.

-UK industrial production declined -0.1% m/m. Manufacturing production climbed 0.7% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.33. 50 day moving average is at 73.76.200 day moving average is at 74.58. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.90. Important support is at 72.90 and important resistance is at 73.50 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP:73.17,S1:73.07, S2:73, R1:73.24, R2: 73.34.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 20 and 50 moving averages, but still above 200 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2225/1.2345. Major support is at 1.1945. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3710 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3450/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3710.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.50/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.

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