USDINR opened at 73.39 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.24-73.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.24 , loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.32. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.13 on 07/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 73.39, loss of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.53. Jan Euro/INR closed at 89.86, GBP/INR at 99.74 and Yen/INR at 70.69.
Rupee reversed early losses on Friday as exporters sold USD and rally in Equity markets intensified further. Fall in Crosses against USD could probably support USD against Rupee.
FII’S nett bought Rs 4202 Cr of Indian Equities in Jan . FII’S nett bought Rs 45 Cr of Indian debt securities in Jan . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 215995 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 21744 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.48% on Friday.DOW climbed 56 points (0.18%).Nikkei climbed 2.36% and Hang seng climbed 1.20%.
Euro closed the week at 1.2221,Pound at 1.3563,Yen at 103.93.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1850 and WT1Crude at USD 52.72/Brent at USD 56.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.10% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.89%.
Economic news: US 10-year yield also surged sharply last week, on the theme of post-vaccine economic growth and reflation. Surging Treasury yield supported USD. Gold declined steeply and Crude rose further.
US non-farm payroll employment contracted -140k in December, well below expectation. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, below expectation of 6.8%, with 10.7m people unemployed. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.8% mom, above expectation of 0.2% mom.
Focus is on Indian IIP and CPI.
Data highlights: – – German industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – EU sentix investor confidence.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.46. 50 day moving average is at 73.84.200 day moving average is at 74.65. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.95. Important support is at 72.90 and important resistance is at 73.55 . Spot closed below average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Jan contract are:
PP:73.45,S1:73.29, S2:73.19, R1:73.55, R2: 73.71.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages, but declined below 20 day moving average. Major resistance is at 1.2345. Major support is at 1.2150/1.2060. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2345. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3705 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3430/1.3330 . Important resistance is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 102.60. Next important resistance is at 104.75/105.70. Important support is at 102.60.
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