• By Goodwill
  • 29 Comments
  • August 25, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 82.43 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.36-82.59 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.57, loss of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.73.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.55 on 24/08Aug USD/INR closed at 82.57, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.72. Aug Euro/INR closed at 89.66, GBP/INR at 104.79 and Yen/INR at 56.82. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.66% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 602 bn as on Aug 11 th.

PAIRS RBI REF RATE (24/08)
USDINR 82.55
EURINR 89.73
GBPINR 105.02
JPYINR 56.90

In Aug, FPI’S have bought Rs 9167 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4388 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 59 points (0.29%) y’day. US S&P declined 60 points  (1.35%) . Nikkei climbed 0.72% and Hang Seng climbed 2.09% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0795, Pound at 1.2592, Yen at 146.06.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1943 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.24% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic newsRupee gained as RBI directed Banks to refrain from arbitrage speculation between OTC and Overseas NDF market. IPO related and FDI inflows also contributed to Rupee gain.

USD gained ahead of Fed Chairman’s speech.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims and Durables order Friday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR      82.59 82.36
EUR/USD

1.0795

  1.0877 1.0793
GBP/USD

1.2592

  1.2729 1.2586
USD/JPY

146.06

  146.07 144.62

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0823 1.0853 1.0907 1.0937 1.0769 1.0739 1.0685
GBP/USD 1.2636 1.2686 1.2779 1.2829 1.2543 1.2493 1.24
USD/JPY 145.58 146.54 147.04 148 145.09 144.12 143.63
USD/INR 82.50 82.65 82.74   82.41 82.26  

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0835/1.0765 1.0925/1.1065 SIDE UP>1.1070
GBP/USD 1.2620/1.2350 1.2820/1.30/1.3150 SIDE UP>1.2820
USD/JPY 144/142 147 UP SIDE<142
USD/INR 82.35/82.25 82.86/83.14 SIDE UP>82.86
USD/CHF 0.8565/0.8440 0.8820 DN SIDE>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.66. 50 day moving average is at 82.35.200 day moving average is at 82.25. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.35/82.25 and important resistance is at 82.86/83.14/83.30. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 82.52, S1:82.42, S2:82.27, R1:82.67, R2:82.76.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following: USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 day average, but still above 200 day major moving average. Major resistance is at 1.0925/1.1065/1.1140/1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0835/1.0765/1.0635. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important supports are at 1.2620/1.2590/1.2350. Important resistance is at 1.2820/1.30/1.3145.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 147 and support is at 144/142.

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