18/04/2018
USDINR opened at 65.44 y’day and the pair traded in the 65.41-65.68 range. USDINR closed at 65.64, gain of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 65.49.RBI reference rate was fixed at 65.61. April USD/INR closed at 65.69, gain of 14 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 65.55. April Euro/INR closed at 81.31, GBP/INR at 94.16 and Yen/INR at 61.38.
Rupee declined on concerns of rising trade deficit and climbing crude prices. USD buying by State run banks on behalf of Govt imports and lower USD supplies due to seasonal factors also contributed to Rupee decline. USDINR could rise to 65.90 and probably decline thereafter to 65.30/65 levels.
FII’S have sold Rs 1084 Cr of Indian Equities in April till date . FII’S have bought Rupees 3935 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 13798 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have bought Rupees 2034 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.19% y’day. DOW climbed 213 points (0.89%) y’day.Nikkei is up 1.7% and Hang seng is to open higher today.
Euro is now at 1.2370, Pound at 1.4294,Yen at 107.27.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1347 and WT1Crude at USD 66.80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.82% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.49%.
Economic news: Chinese Q1 GDP grew 6.8% yoy, same as prior quarter and met expectation. People’s Bank of China lowered Reserve Requirement Ratio for most commercial and foreign banks by 1%, effective April 26.
US Treasury Secy reiterated US President’s comments on Currency devaluation by Russia and China.
Data Highlights: — US housing starts climbed to 1.32 mn , building perimts was at 1.35mn and industrial production climbed more than expected by 0.5% m/m.
-German Zew survey dipped to -8.2
-UK unemployment rate declined to 4.2% and claimant count change was reported at 11.6k.
Wednesday’s calendar: -EU CPI
-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
| USD/INR | 65.68 | 65.41 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2370 | 1.2414 | 1.2337 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4294 | 1.4377 | 1.4283 |
| USD/JPY | 107.27 | 107.21 | 106.88 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2374 | 1.2411 | 1.2451 | 1.2488 | 1.2334 | 1.2297 | 1.2257 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4319 | 1.4355 | 1.4413 | 1.4449 | 1.4261 | 1.4225 | 1.4167 |
| USD/JPY | 107.04
|
107.20 | 107.37 | 107.53
|
106.87 | 106.71 | 106.54
|
| USD/INR | 65.58 | 65.74 | 65.85 | 65.48 | 65.31 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2210/1.2150/1.2090 | 1.2475/1.2555 | SIDE | SIDE<1.2150 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3965/1.3710 | 1.4345 | UP | DN<1.3710 |
| USD/JPY | 104.50 | 108 | DN | SIDE>108 |
| USD/INR | 65.30/65.18/64.85 | 65.90 | UP | SIDE<65.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9535/0.9435 | 0.9870 | UP | DN <0.9430 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.12. 50 day moving average is at 64.75. 200 day moving average is at 64.45. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 64.85 . Important support zone is at 65.30. Important resistance is at 65.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 65.63,S1:65.51, S2:65.35, R1:65.80, R2:65.91
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2475 and later at 1.2555. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.2215. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bullish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3965 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3715. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4345. Important support is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is at 108 and later at 110.40.
