USDINR opened at 73.96 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.83-73.96 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.85 , gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.78. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.51 on 18/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 73.94, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.10. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.36, GBP/INR at 99.27 and Yen/INR at 71.50.
Equity indices recovered after y’day’s steep decline.
FII’S nett bought Rs 39725 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S nett bought Rs 5962 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 198635 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 25804 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.03% y’day.DOW declined 200 points (0.67%) y’day.Nikkei declined 1.04% and Hang seng declined 0.75%.
Euro is now at 1.2173,Pound at 1.3388,Yen at 103.56.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1872 and WT1Crude at USD 46.65/Brent at USD 49.77.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.91% and 3 m libor closed at 0.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.96%.
Economic news: US House passed the USD 900B coronavirus relief package late Monday night. Additionally, USD 1.4T measures was also passed to fund the government through September 30. UK Q3 GDP was estimated to have increased by a record 16.0% qoq in Q3, revised up from first estimate of 15.5%. Over the year, GDP dropped -8.6% yoy.
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 33.4% in Q3, revised up from 33.1%.
Data highlights: – US Existing home sales was reported at 6.69 mn and consumer confidence declined to 88.6.
-German Gfk sentiment climbed to -7.3.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US Durables order and weekly jobless claims
-US New home sales, Personal income, spending and Core PCE index
| USD/INR | 73.82 | 73.64 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2173 | 1.2257 | 1.2153 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3388 | 1.3457 | 1.3305 |
| USD/JPY | 103.56 | 103.74 | 103.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2199 | 1.2245 | 1.2304 | 1.2350 | 1.2141 | 1.2094 | 1.2036 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3388 | 1.3471 | 1.3540 | 1.3623 | 1.3319 | 1.3236 | 1.3167 |
| USD/JPY | 103.52
|
103.75 | 103.97 | 104.21 | 103.30 | 103.07
|
102.85
|
| USD/INR | 73.88 | 73.93 | 74.01 | 73.80 | 73.75 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2060/1.1985 | 1.2470 | UP | DN<1.19 |
| GBP/USD | 1.34/1.3225 | 1.3710 | UP | DN<1.31 |
| USD/JPY | 103.10/101.20 | 104.75/105.65 | DN | UP>104.75 |
| USD/INR | 73.45 | 73.95/74.40 | DN | SIDE>73.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.87 | 0.8980/0.9030 | DN | UP>0.9030 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.75. 50 day moving average is at 73.84.200 day moving average is at 74.60. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.40. Important support is at 73.40 and important resistance is at 73.95/74.40 . Spot closed below average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP:73.96,S1:73.87, S2:73.81, R1:74.02, R2: 74.11.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2470. Major support is at 1.2060/1.1960. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3135 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.34/1.3225 . Important resistance is at 1.3710.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 104.75. Next important resistance is at 104.75/105.70. Important support is at 103.10//101.20.
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