FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 73.66 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.55-73.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.65 , loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.67. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.58 on 09/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 73.87, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.81. Dec Euro/INR closed at 89.59, GBP/INR at 98 and Yen/INR at 70.74.
FII’S nett bought Rs 24250 Cr of Indian Equities in Dec . FII’S nett bought Rs 1976 Cr of Indian debt securities in Dec . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 183160 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 29790 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.26% on Friday.DOW climbed 47 points (0.16%) on Friday .Nikkei declined 0.39% and Hang seng climbed 0.36%.
Euro closed the week at 1.2111,Pound at 1.3223,Yen at 104.01.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1843 and WT1Crude at USD 46.50/Brent at USD 50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.89% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.93%.
Economic news: Indian OCT IIP climbed 3.6% and manufacturing sector climbed 3.5%. IIP declined 6.6% in Oct 2019. IIP has contracted 17.5% in this fiscal till Oct. Power sector climbed 11.2%, mining contracted 1.5%, capital goods climbed 3.3%, consumer durables grew 17.6% and non durables grew by 7.5%.
US FDA approved Pfizer vaccine and vaccination process is set to begin next week.
UK PM hinted that UK will leave EU without a deal and likely to adopt World trade terms.
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims rose to 853k and CPI climbed 0.2% m/m.
-US PPI climbed 0.1% m/m.
-UK Industrial and manufacturing production climbed 1.3% and 1.7% m/m respectively.
Monday’s calendar: – EU industrial production.
| USD/INR | 73.71 | 73.55 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.2111 | 1.2163 | 1.2105 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3223 | 1.3326 | 1.3134 |
| USD/JPY | 104.01 | 104.29 | 103.82 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.2126 | 1.2147 | 1.2184 | 1.2089 | 1.2068 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3227 | 1.3320 | 1.3419 | 1.3129 | 1.3035 | ||
| USD/JPY | 104.04
|
104.26 | 104.51 | 103.79 | 103.57
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 73.63 | 73.72 | 73.79 | 73.55 | 73.47 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.2060/1.1985 | 1.2175/1.2230 | UP | DN<1.19 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3135/1.2850 | 1.3540 | SIDE | DN<1.31 |
| USD/JPY | 103.10/101.20 | 104.75/105.65 | DN | UP>105.65 |
| USD/INR | 73.45 | 73.95/74.40 | DN | SIDE>73.95 |
| USD/CHF | 0.87 | 0.8980/0.9030 | DN | UP>0.9030 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.98. 50 day moving average is at 73.83.200 day moving average is at 74.55. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.86. Important support is at 73.45 and important resistance is at 73.95/74.40 . Spot closed above average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP:73.81,S1:73.73, S2:73.59, R1:73.95, R2: 74.03.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2220. Major support is at 1.2060/1.1960. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1610.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3540 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.31/1.2850 . Important resistance is at 1.3540.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 103.60. Next important resistance is at 104.65/105.70. Important support is at 103.60/103.10//101.20.
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