USDINR opened at 73.44 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.42-73.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.80 , gain of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.67. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.79 on 27/11. Dec USD/INR closed at 74.03, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.88. Dec Euro/INR closed at 89.13, GBP/INR at 98.80 and Yen/INR at 70.69.

FII’S nett bought Rs 61712 Cr of Indian Equities in Nov . FII’S nett sold Rs 1314 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 158910 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  32346 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day.DOW climbed 59 points (0.20%) y’day .Nikkei climbed 0.05% and Hang seng declined 0.13%.

Euro is now at 1.2114,Pound at 1.3366,Yen at 104.50.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1829 and WT1Crude at USD 45.10/Brent at USD 48.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.94% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.

Economic news: Indian Nov GST collections climbed 1.4% y/y to 1.05 lac Cr. Rail freight loading also climbed 9% y/y. Auto sales were up y/y, though there is a decline m/m. 

Non food credit offtake was tepid at 5.6% y/y. Sluggish personal loan offtake and degrowth in industrial credit contributed to decline in total non food credit offtake. Industrial credit declined -1.7% y/y. Large industrial credit de grew by -2.9% y/y. Due to Credit guarantee loans, MSME Credit grew 16.7% y/y. On M/M, credit growth was slower at 2.4%. 

Service sector credit grew to 9.5% y/y in Oct. Credit to NBFC slowed to 9.2% y/y. 

Personal loan growth moderated to 9.3%. Home and auto loans credit was steady at 8.2% 

and 8.4% respectively. Agri Credit grew by 7.4% y/y.

UK become the first country to approve Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine and shots are due next week. USD was weaker against a basket of currencies on stimulus hopes and optimism over the start of covid vaccination program.

Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that only 307k jobs were added against forecast of 433k.

-German retail sales climbed 2.6% m/m, EU PPI climbed 0.4% m/m and unemployment rate was reported at 8.4%.

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims and ISM(non mfrg)

-EU PMI(services) and retail sales

-UK PMI(services)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.20. 50 day moving average is at 73.80.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.86. Important support is at 73.45 and important resistance is at 74.05 . Spot closed above average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP:73.89,S1:73.75, S2:73.47, R1:74.17, R2: 74.31.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2020 and later at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.1880/1.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850 . Important resistance is at 1.34/1.3485.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 105.70. Next important resistance is at 105.70/106.10. Important support is at 103.10/101.20.

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