USDINR opened at 73.95 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.44-73.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.67 , loss of 37 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.04. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.97 on 25/11. Dec USD/INR closed at 73.88, loss of 34 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.22. Dec Euro/INR closed at 88.37, GBP/INR at 98.57 and Yen/INR at 70.77.
FII’S nett bought Rs 61712 Cr of Indian Equities in Nov . FII’S nett sold Rs 1314 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 158910 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 32346 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.08% y’day.DOW climbed 185 points (0.63%) y’day .Nikkei climbed 1.34% and Hang seng climbed 0.86%.
Euro is now at 1.2065,Pound at 1.3421,Yen at 104.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1816 and WT1Crude at USD 44.30/Brent at USD 47.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.92% and 3 m labor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.91%.
Economic news: Rupee gained to 73.45 due to flows related to MSCI index balancing. Morgan stanley brought in funds for Equity allocation balancing.
Nov PMI(mfrg) dipped to 56.3. However, it remained in expansionary mode. Indian car maker Maruti reported 2% increase in sales to 153233 units as compared to 150630 units in Nov 2019. Bajaj Auto reported 5% increase in sales and Escorts reported 33% increase in sales due to tractor demand.
Focus is on RBI policy. RBI MPC decision will be known on Dec 4 th.
In the testimony before a Senate Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned “the rise in new COVID-19 cases, both in US and abroad, is concerning and could prove challenging for the next few months.” And, “a full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities.
Data highlights: – US Pending home sales declined -1.1% m/m, Chicago PMI dipped to 58.2.
-US ISM(mfrg) dips to 57.5, construction spending climbs 1.3% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 53.8.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 55.6.
Wednesday’s calendar: – US ADP employment report
-German retail sales, EU PPI and unemployment rate
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.23. 50 day moving average is at 73.75.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.86. Important support is at 73.45 and important resistance is at 73.80/74.05 . Spot closed below average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP:73.91,S1:73.62, S2:73.36, R1:74.17, R2: 74.46.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2020 and later at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.1880/1.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850 . Important resistance is at 1.34/1.3485.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 105.70. Next important resistance is at 105.70/106.10. Important support is at 103.10/101.20.
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