USDINR opened at 73.79 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.76-74.08 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.04 , gain of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.97 on 25/11. Dec USD/INR closed at 74.22, gain of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.09. Dec Euro/INR closed at 88.48, GBP/INR at 98.91 and Yen/INR at 71.27.
FII’S nett bought Rs 61712 Cr of Indian Equities in Nov . FII’S nett sold Rs 1314 Cr of Indian debt securities in Nov . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 158910 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 32346 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.14% on Friday.DOW climbed 38 points (0.13%) on Friday .Nikkei climbed 0.40% and Hang seng climbed 0.28%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1963,Pound at 1.3314,Yen at 104.10.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1783 and WT1Crude at USD 45.53/Brent at USD 48.28.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.84% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.91%.
Economic news: Indian Q2 GDP contracted -7.5%, better than expected due to robust agri growth and revival in manufacturing sector. Services sector continues to be a drag. In Q1, GDP contracted -23.9%. Agri grew by 3.4% and manufacturing grew by 0.6%. Construction sector contracted by -8.6%, while Power, water and and utility sector grew by 4.4%. Transport and communication services sector declined by -15.6%. Private consumption declined -11.5%. Govt spending declined to 10.9% of GDP as against 18.1% in Q1.
Core sector declined -2.5% in Oct.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Monday’s calendar: – US Pending home sales, Chicago PMI
| USD/INR | 74.08 | 73.76 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1963 | 1.1965 | 1.1907 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3314 | 1.3383 | 1.3288 |
| USD/JPY | 104.10 | 104.29 | 103.90 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1945 | 1.1983 | 1.2003 | 1.1925 | 1.1887 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3328 | 1.3368 | 1.3423 | 1.3273 | 1.3233 | ||
| USD/JPY | 104.10
|
104.29 | 104.49 | 103.91 | 103.71
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 73.96 | 74.16 | 74.28 | 73.84 | 73.64 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1880/1.18/1.1745 | 1.2010/1.2130 | UP | DN<1.1745 |
| GBP/USD | 1.305/1.2850/1.27 | 1.3485 | UP | DN<1.3050 |
| USD/JPY | 103.10/101.20 | 105.65/106.10 | DN | UP>105.65 |
| USD/INR | 73.80/73.60 | 74.90 | UP | DN<73.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8980 | 0.9210 | DN | UP>0.9210 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.25. 50 day moving average is at 73.75.200 day moving average is at 74.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.86. Important support is at 73.75/73.55 and important resistance is at 74.90 . Spot closed above average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP:74.14,S1:74.01, S2:73.82, R1:74.34, R2: 74.46.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2020 and later at 1.2130. Major support is at 1.1880/1.18. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2675. Important support is at 1.3050/1.2850 . Important resistance is at 1.34/1.3485.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 105.70. Next important resistance is at 105.70/106.10. Important support is at 103.10/101.20.
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