FX MORNING UPDATE 

USDINR opened at 74.52 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.09-74.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.19 , loss of 27 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.46. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.67 on 13/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.23, loss of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.51. Nov Euro/INR closed at 88.10, GBP/INR at 98.55 and Yen/INR at 71.43.

FII’S nett bought Rs 30790 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 2061 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 127268 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  28971 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.50% y’day.DOW declined 344 points (1.16%) .Nikkei declined 1.10% and Hang seng climbed 0.49%.

Euro is now at 1.1839,Pound at 1.3232,Yen at 103.83.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1870 and WT1Crude at USD 41.65/Brent at USD 44.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.857% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.87%.

Economic news: Fed Chairman warned yesterday of the “significant” downside risk in the economy, “especially in the near term” due to resurgence of coronavirus infections. “The concern is that people will lose confidence in efforts to control the pandemic and they will pull back from activities that they think might put them at risk of infection,” he said. He added that Fed is “strongly committed to using all out tools” to support the economy.

 

Data highlights: – US building permits dipped to 1.55 mn and housing starts climbed to 1.53 mn.

-EU CPI declined -0.3% y/y.

-UK CPI climbed 0.7% y/y, RPI climbed 1.3% y/y and PPI(output) was flat m/m.

Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims,  existing home sales and Phily Fed mfrg index.

USD/INR   74.52 74.09
EUR/USD 1.1839 1.1891 1.1845
GBP/USD 1.3232 1.3312 1.3243
USD/JPY 103.83 104.18 103.65

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1861 1.1877 1.1907 1.1924 1.1831 1.1815 1.1784
GBP/USD 1.3269 1.3295 1.3338 1.3363 1.3226 1.3200 1.3157
USD/JPY 103.91

 

104.17 104.43 104.69 103.64 103.39

 

103.12

 

USD/INR 74.26 74.44 74.69   74 73.83

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1745/1.16 1.1880/1.1920/1.2020 UP DN<1.16
GBP/USD 1.3084/1.2850 1.33/1.3485 UP DN<1.2850
USD/JPY 103.10/101.20 105.65/106.10 DN UP>105.65
USD/INR 73.80/73.60 74.90 UP DN<73.50
USD/CHF 0.8980 0.9210 DN UP>0.9210

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.08. 50 day moving average is at 73.75.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 74.86. Important support is at 73.80/73.75 and important resistance is at 74.90 . Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP:74.31,S1:74.04, S2:73.85, R1:74.50, R2: 74.77.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1920 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2850/1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3485.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 103.20. Next important resistance is at 105.65/106.10. Important support is at 103.10/101.20.

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