USDINR opened at 74.62 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.47-74.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.60 , loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.64. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.45 on 12/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.63, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.70. Nov Euro/INR closed at 88.27, GBP/INR at 98.40 and Yen/INR at 71.11.
FII’S nett bought Rs 30790 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 2061 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 127268 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 28971 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.47% on Diwali trading session. DOW climbed 399 points (1.37%).Nikkei declined 0.53% and Hang seng declined 0.05%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1832,Pound at 1.3186,Yen at 104.62.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1888 and WT1Crude at USD 40.12/Brent at USD 42.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.89% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.88%.
Economic news: Global Equities maintained solid upside momentun on reports of early administration of corona vaccine. Indian FII inflows surged in Nov as market rally intensified. However, Rupee is showing signs of weakness.
Indian trade deficit for Oct 20 was reported at 8.71 bn US as against USD 11.75 bn in Oct 2019. Exports declined 5.12% in Oct to USD 24.89 BN. Imports fell 11.53% to USD 33.6 bn.
In Apr-Oct period, exports declined 19.02% to USD 150.14 bn, while imports declined 36.28% to USD 182.29 bn. Trade deficit moderated to USD 32.15 bn.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.3% m/m.
-EU GDP (flash) climbed 12.6% q/q.
Monday’s calendar: – US NY mfrg index.
| USD/INR | 74.71 | 74.47 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1832 | 1.1838 | 1.1798 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3186 | 1.3203 | 1.3109 |
| USD/JPY | 104.62 | 105.17 | 104.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1822 | 1.1847 | 1.1863 | 1.1806 | 1.1781 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3166 | 1.3223 | 1.3260 | 1.3129 | 1.3072 | ||
| USD/JPY | 104.78
|
105 | 105.39 | 104.39 | 104.17
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 74.59 | 74.71 | 74.83 | 74.47 | 74.35 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1745/1.16 | 1.1880/1.1920/1.2020 | UP | DN<1.16 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3084/1.2850 | 1.33/1.3485 | UP | DN<1.2850 |
| USD/JPY | 103.10/101.20 | 105.65/106.10 | DN | UP>105.65 |
| USD/INR | 73.80/73.60 | 74.90 | UP | DN<73.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8980 | 0.9210 | DN | UP>0.9210 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.02. 50 day moving average is at 73.70.200 day moving average is at 74.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.03. Important support is at 73.80/73.75 and important resistance is at 74.90 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP:74.63,S1:74.59, S2:74.55, R1:74.67, R2: 74.71.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1920 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2850/1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.33/1.3485.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 103.20. Next important resistance is at 105.65/106.10. Important support is at 103.10/101.20.
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