FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 73.98 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.87-74.22 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.20 , loss of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.40. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.05 on 06/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.27, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.23. Nov Euro/INR closed at 88.12, GBP/INR at 97.52 and Yen/INR at 71.88.
FII’S nett bought Rs 16994 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 3776 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 96478 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 31032 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.18% on Friday. DOW declined 67 points (0.24%).Nikkei climbed 0.91% and Hang seng climbed 0.07%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1873,Pound at 1.3156,Yen at 103.33.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1873 and WT1Crude at USD 37.46/Brent at USD 39.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.82% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.84%.
Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment grew 638k in October, above expectation of 600k. Unemployment dropped sharply to 6.9%, down from 7.9%, well below expectation of 7.7%. Labor force participation rate also rose 0.3% to 61.7%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom.
Data highlights: – -German industrial production climbed 1.6% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: – EU sentix investor confidence
| USD/INR | 74.22 | 73.87 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1873 | 1.1891 | 1.1795 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3156 | 1.3178 | 1.3092 |
| USD/JPY | 103.33 | 103.77 | 103.17 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1853 | 1.1911 | 1.1949 | 1.1815 | 1.1757 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3142 | 1.3192 | 1.3156 | 1.3106 | 1.3028 | ||
| USD/JPY | 103.42
|
103.67 | 104.02 | 103.07 | 102.82
|
|
|
| USD/INR | 74.09 | 74.32 | 74.44 | 73.96 | 73.74 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.16 | 1.1880/1.1920/1.2020 | UP | DN<1.16 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2850/1.2610 | 1.3270 | UP | DN<1.2850 |
| USD/JPY | 101.20 | 105.35/106.10 | DN | UP>105.35 |
| USD/INR | 73.95/73.75 | 74.90 | UP | DN<73.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8885 | 0.9210 | DN | UP>0.9210 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.75. 50 day moving average is at 73.60.200 day moving average is at 74.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.03. Important support is at 73.90/73.75 and important resistance is at 74.90 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP:74.21,S1:74.02, S2:73.79, R1:74.45, R2: 74.63.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1920 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages . Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2850 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2850/1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.3275.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 105.35. Next important resistance is at 105.35/106.10. Important support is at 101.20.
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