USDINR opened at 74.04 on Thursday and the pair traded in the 73.95-74.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.11 , gain of 24 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.87. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.76 on Wednesday. Nov USD/INR closed at 74.60, gain of 52 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.08. Nov Euro/INR closed at 87.39, GBP/INR at 96.71 and Yen/INR at 71.61.

FII’S nett bought Rs 19806 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 2815 Cr of Indian debt securities in Oct . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 99289 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  25733 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.34% on Friday. DOW declined 157 points (0.59%).Nikkei declined 1.52% and Hang seng declined 1.95%.

Euro closed the week at 1.1647,Pound at 1.2941,Yen at 104.64. 

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1878 and WT1Crude at USD 35.77/Brent at USD 37.89.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.88% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.86%.

Economic news: ECB has announced to leave all its monetary policy measures unchanged. The deposit rate stays at -0.5%, while the main refi rate and the marginal lending rate also remain unchanged at 0% and 0.25% respectively. The PEPP program will continue to run with a total envelope of 1.35 trillion euro. The members were concerned about the economic outlook and signaled that more stimulus measures will come out in December. ECB President Christine Lagarde raised concerns about the negative impacts of renewed lockdown measures by Germany and France (and many more to come) on economic recovery. 

US GDP grew at annual rate of 33.1% in Q3, above expectation of 32.0%. Eurozone GDP grew 12.7% qoq in Q3, well above expectation of 9.0% yoy. That’s also more than enough to cover the -11.8% qoq contraction in Q2. Germany GDP grew 8.2% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 7.3% qoq. But that’s not enough to recovery the -9.7% qoq contraction in Q2.

Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims dipped to 751k,pending home sales declined -2.2% m/m.

-US Personal income climbed 0.9% m/m, spending climbed 1.4% m/m, PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m.

-German retail sales declined -2.2% m/m and EU (CPI-flash) declined -0.3% y/y.

Monday’s calendar: – US ISM(mfrg) and constrution spending

-EU PMI(mfrg)

-UK PMI(mfrg)

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 100 and 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.45. 50 day moving average is at 73.62.200 day moving average is at 74.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.03. Important support is at 73.98/73.78 and important resistance is at 74.40 . Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP:74.45,S1:74.25, S2:73.90, R1:74.80, R2: 75.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 major moving averages, but below 50 day average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1890 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1890. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 major moving averages, but below 50 day average.   Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3178 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2860/1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.3175/1.3275.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 106.10. Next important resistance is at 106.10/107.50. Important support is at 104.10

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