USDINR opened at 73.77 Y’day and the pair traded in the 73.53-73.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.53 , loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.58. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.45 on Wednesday. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.69, loss of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.77. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.08, GBP/INR at 96.55 and Yen/INR at 70.38. RBI has been buying USD to stem Rupee gains. FII and FDI investment flows could have contributed to further Rupee strength, but for RBI buying.
FII’S nett bought Rs 9047 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett bought Rs 296 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 88530 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 28252 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.35% y’day. DOW climbed 152 points (0.54%).Nikkei declined 0.70% and Hang seng climbed 0.13%.
Euro is now at 1.1802,Pound at 1.3068,Yen at 104.77.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1905 and WT1Crude at USD 40.62/Brent at USD 42.48.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.86% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: Markets are in cautious mode ahead of important events. USD continues to be weaker against majors.
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 787k and existing home sales climbed to 6.54 mn.
-EU Consumer confidence declined to -16.
Friday’s calendar: – EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
-UK PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services) and retail sales.
| USD/INR | 73.78 | 73.53 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1802 | 1.1867 | 1.1812 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3068 | 1.3151 | 1.3071 |
| USD/JPY | 104.77 | 104.93 | 104.47 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1832 | 1.1852 | 1.1887 | 1.1906 | 1.1797 | 1.1777 | 1.1743 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3100 | 1.3129 | 1.3179 | 1.3208 | 1.3049 | 1.3021 | 1.2970 |
| USD/JPY | 104.77
|
105.07 | 105.23 | 105.53 | 104.61 | 104.31
|
104.15
|
| USD/INR | 73.61 | 73.69 | 73.86 | 73.44 | 73.36 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1610 | 1.1825 | SIDE | DN<1.16 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2610 | 1.3085 | SIDE | UP>1.3085 |
| USD/JPY | 104.10 | 106.10/107.50 | DN | UP>106.10 |
| USD/INR | 73/72.70 | 73.78/73.98 | DN | UP>74 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9085/0.90 | 0.93 | SIDE | DN<0.9085 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.45. 50 day moving average is at 73.73.200 day moving average is at 74.05. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 73.03. Important support is at 73/72.70 and important resistance is at 73.80 and later at 73.98. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP:73.68,S1:73.54, S2:73.40, R1:73.82, R2: 73.96.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 200 but below 50 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1825 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1825. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2674 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2670/1.2470 . Important resistance is at 1.3085.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 106.10. Next important resistance is at 106.10/107.50. Important support is at at 104.10.
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