USDINR opened at 73.08 Y’day and the pair traded in the 73.05-73.30 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.27 , gain of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.13. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.29 on Thursday. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.40, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.25. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.56, GBP/INR at 95.55 and Yen/INR at 69.60.
FII’S nett bought Rs 4284 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett sold Rs 3135 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 83768 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 31683 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.14% y’day. DOW climbed 250 points (0.88%).Nikkei declined 0.26% and Hang seng climbed 2.20%.
Euro closed the week at 1.1794,Pound at 1.3040,Yen at 105.36.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1920 and WT1Crude at USD 39.44/Brent at USD 41.74.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.76% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.
Economic news: Indian IIP contracted 8% in Aug and retail inflation was higher at 7.34% in Sept. Food inflation was higher at 10.68%. Aug inflation was at 6.68%.
Mfrg sector contracted 8.6, mining contracted 9.8% in Aug.
FM announced festival advance of Rs 10000 and encashment of leave travel allowance. However, the amount will have to be spent on purchase of non food items. This is aimed at boosting consumer demand.
Data highlights : – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US CPI
-EU Zew survey
-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.
| USD/INR | 73.30 | 73.05 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1794 | 1.1827 | 1.1786 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3040 | 1.3084 | 1.3004 |
| USD/JPY | 105.36 | 105.89 | 105.24 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1809 | 1.1832 | 1.1851 | 1.1874 | 1.1791 | 1.1767 | 1.1749 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3051 | 1.3098 | 1.3131 | 1.3177 | 1.3018 | 1.2971 | 1.2938 |
| USD/JPY | 105.47
|
105.70 | 106.12 | 106.36 | 105.05 | 104.82
|
104.40
|
| USD/INR | 73.21 | 73.36 | 73.46 | 73.12 | 72.96 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1610 | 1.1920/1.2010 | UP | DN<1.16 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2670/1.2480 | 1.3250/1.3450 | UP | DN<1.2675 |
| USD/JPY | 104.10 | 106.10/107.50 | DN | UP>107 |
| USD/INR | 72.70 | 73.52/73.98 | DN | UP>74.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.90 | 0.92 | UP | DN<0.9150 |
Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.50. 50 day moving average is at 73.95.200 day moving average is at 74. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.98. Important support is at 72.70 and important resistance is at 73.53 and later at 73.98. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP:73.35,S1:73.20, S2:72.99, R1:73.55, R2: 73.71.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1920 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2674 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2670/1.2470 . Important resistance is at 1.3250 and later at around 1.35.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104. Next important resistance is at 106.10/107.50. Important support is at at 104.10
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