USDINR opened at 73.18 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.03-73.27 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.13 , loss of 11 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.24. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.29 on Thursday. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.25, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.37. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.43, GBP/INR at 94.88 and Yen/INR at 69.22.

FII’S nett bought Rs 4284 Cr of Indian Equities in Oct . FII’S nett sold Rs 3135 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 83768 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  31683 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.67% on Friday. DOW climbed 161 points (0.57%).Nikkei declined 0.12% and Hang seng declined 0.31%.

Euro closed the week at 1.1829,Pound at 1.3048,Yen at 105.61. 

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1936 and WT1Crude at USD 40.55/Brent at USD 42.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.775% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.94%.

Economic news: RBI maintained status quo on rates and stance. RBI Governor said that MPC has decided to see through the inflation as it is likely to be transient.  GDP is expected to contract by -9.5% for this year. GDP is expected to be in positive zone in Q4. RBI Governor said that consumption and exports are picking up and it is not imprudent to dream. He added that the economy is in a decisive stage.

RBI has decided to do Weekly OMO’S of Rs 20,000 Cr which could be infused into corporate debentures. RBI is also expected to buy state govt securities as part of OMO. For housing sector, risk weigthage of loans has been reduced to loan to value ratio, which could bring down costs of housing loans for high loan values. Banks need not account MTM of bond fluctuations till 2022. Banks exposure to individual retail loans has been enhence to rs 7.5 cr.

10 year G-SEC bond yield has declined 10 bps to 5.93%. Rupee has gained to 73.05 and Indian Equity indices are marginally higher.

UK GDP grew only 2.1% mom in August, well below expectation of 5.7% mom.

Data highlights : – UK industrial and manufacturing production climbed 0.3% and 0.7% respectively.

Monday’s calendar: -Indian IIP

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.51. 50 day moving average is at 73.98.200 day moving average is at 74. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.98. Important support is at 72.70 and important resistance is at 73.53 and later at 73.98. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP:73.24,S1:73.11, S2:72.99, R1:73.37, R2: 73.49.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1920 and later at 1.20. Major support is at 1.1610. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1610. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2674 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2670/1.2470 . Important resistance is at 1.3250 and later at around 1.35.

USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104. Next important resistance is at 106.10/107.50. Important support is at at 104.10.

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