USDINR opened at 73.60 on Friday and the pair traded in the 73.05-73.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.14 , loss of 63 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.77. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.79 on Wednesday. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.35, loss of 59 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.23, GBP/INR at 94.89 and Yen/INR at 69.55. Rupee climbed steeply to 73.05, attributed to inflows related to Reliance.

FII’S nett sold Rs 5689 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept t . FII’S nett bought Rs 3009 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept . In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 79484 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  34818 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.51% on Thursday. DOW declined 134 points (0.48%).Nikkei declined 0.67% and Hang seng climbed 0.79%.

Euro closed the week at 1.1716,Pound at 1.2931,Yen at 105.33. 

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1904 and WT1Crude at USD 36.97/Brent at USD 39.20.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.696% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.04%.

Economic news: Indian PMI (mfrg) reading rose to the highest level since 2012. Sept PMI(mfrg) was reported at 56.8, as compared to Aug data of 52, signalling ramping up of production. GST collections grew 4% y/y to Rs 95000 Cr. Rly freight revenue was up 13.5% and Exports climbed 5.3% y/y in Sept to USD 27.4 bn. Indian PMI (mfrg) reading rose to the highest level since 2012. Sept PMI(mfrg) was reported at 56.8, as compared to Aug data of 52, signalling ramping up of production. Maruti reported 34% increase in Sept sales as compared to last sept. Vehicle sales was reported at 152608 vis a vis 115452 last year. Hyundai reported 24% increase in sales. Except for Toyota, all major manufacturers reported increase in car sales. Bajaj reported 10% increase in Sept sales of two wheelers (441306). Enfield reported 4% increase y/y and Hero reported 17% increase y/y.. Petrol sales was up 2% y/y. NTPC reported 13% jump in July-Sep output. Digital payments was up 12% y/y.

US non-farm payroll employment grew 661k in September, below expectation of 875k. Unemployment rate dropped to 7.9%, down from 8.4%, beat expectation of 8.3%.

Data highlights : – US Pending home sales climbed 8.8% m/m and Chicago PMI climbed to 62.4.

-US Weekly jobless claims fell to 837k, personal income declined -2.7% m/m, spending climbed 1% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m.

-US ISM(mfrg) dipped to 55.4 and construction spending climbed 1.4% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg) was reported at 53.7, PPI climbed 0.1% m/m and unemployment rate was reported at 8.1%. CPI(flash) declined -0.3% y/y.

-UK PMI(mfrg) dipped to 54.1.

Monday’s calendar: – EU PMI(services) and sentix investor confidence.

-UK PMI(services)

USD/INR   73.61 73.05
EUR/USD 1.1716 1.1751 1.1695
GBP/USD 1.2931 1.2955 1.2837
USD/JPY 105.33 105.68 104.93

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1720 1.1746 1.1776   1.1689 1.1664  
GBP/USD 1.2907 1.2978  1.3025    1.2859  1.2789  
USD/JPY 105.31


 105.70  106.06   104.94 104.56




USD/INR 73.26 73.48 73.82   72.91 72.70


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1580 1.1750/1.1920/1.20 SIDE DN<1.15
GBP/USD 1.2670/1.2480 1.3010 DN UP>1.3010
USD/JPY 104.10 105.80/107 DN UP>107
USD/INR 72.70 73.52/73.98 DN UP>74.50
USD/CHF 0.90 0.92 UP DN<0.9150

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.52. 50 day moving average is at 74.14.200 day moving average is at 73.94. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 73.98. Important support is at 72.70 and important resistance is at 73.53 and later at 73.98. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP:73.45,S1:73.10, S2:72.85, R1:73.70, R2: 74.05.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1750 and later at 1.19. Major support is at 1.1580. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.20. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is between moving averages. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2674 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2670/1.2470 . Important resistance is at 1.30 and later at around 1.31.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104. Next important resistance is at 105.80/107. Important support is at at 104.10./

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