USDINR opened at 73.82 Y’day and the pair traded in the 73.69-73.86 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.77 , loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.85. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.85 on Tuesday. Oct USD/INR closed at 73.94, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74. Oct Euro/INR closed at 86.61, GBP/INR at 94.90 and Yen/INR at 69.95.

FII’S have nett sold Rs 1671 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 3468 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till date. In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 85246 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  37596 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.22% y’day. DOW climbed 329 points (1.20%).Nikkei declined 1.5% and Hang seng climbed 0.79%.

Euro is now at 1.1743,Pound at 1.2934,Yen at 105.47      

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1897 and WT1Crude at USD 40.16/Brent at USD 42.25.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.694% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.04%.

Economic news: Indian Current account posted a surplus of USD 19.8 bn in Apr-June period, partly due to lower imports and partly due to GDP contraction. In Jan-March, current account was USD 600 mn in surplus. CA surplus stood at 3.9% of GDP in Q1. This was against USD 15 bn CAD in the same period last year (2.1% of GDP). Trade deficit stood at USD 10 bn in Q1 vs USD 46.8 bn in the same period last year. BOP showed surplus of USD 19.8 bn.

Indian Core sector index declined 9.6% in July compared to a year ago. In April, the index was down 37% , 22% in May and 12.9% in June. Fertiliser production grew 6.9%, electricity output contracted 2.3% and coal production declined 5.7%.

Data highlights : – US Pending home sales and Chicago PMI

Thursday’s calendar: – -US Weekly jobless claims, personal income, spending and Core PCE index.

-US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending.

-EU PMI(mfrg), PPI and unemployment rate

-UK PMI(mfrg)

USD/INR   73.86 73.69
EUR/USD 1.1743 1.1756 1.1684
GBP/USD 1.2934 1.2944 1.2806
USD/JPY 105.47 105.81 105.40

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1720 1.1756 1.1792 1.1827 1.1684 1.1648 1.1612
GBP/USD 1.2888 1.2970 1.3026 1.3109 1.2832 1.2750 1.2694
USD/JPY 105.55


105.70 105.96 106.11 105.29 105.14




USD/INR 73.77 73.85 73.94   73.68 73.60  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1580 1.1750 SIDE DN<1.15
GBP/USD 1.2670/1.2480 1.3010 DN UP>1.3010
USD/JPY 104.10 107 DN UP>107
USD/INR 73.65/73.45 74/74.25 DN UP>74.50
USD/CHF 0.90 0.92 UP DN<0.9150

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.56. 50 day moving average is at 74.16.200 day moving average is at 73.90. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.70. Important support is at 73.45/73.15 and important resistance is at 74 and later at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP:73.95,S1:73.85, S2:73.76, R1:74.04, R2: 74.14.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1750 and later at 1.19. Major support is at 1.1580. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.20. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.20.

GBP/USD: The pair is set to enter into bear territory. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484. Important support is at 1.2670/1.2470 . Important resistance is at 1.30 and later at around 1.31.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at at 104.10.

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