FX MORNING UPDATE

                                             

USDINR opened at 73.44 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.26-73.44 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.40 , loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.45. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.29 on Friday. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.57, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.47. Sep Euro/INR closed at 86.75, GBP/INR at 94.64 and Yen/INR at 70.65.

FII’S have nett bought Rs 4124 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 2285 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till date. In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 91027 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  38779 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 2.46%. DOW declined 509 points (1.84%).Nikkei climbed 0.18% and Hang seng declined 2.06%.

Euro is now at 1.1764,Pound at 1.2811,Yen at 104.53.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1915 and WT1Crude at USD 39.80/Brent at USD 41.66.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.67% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.01%.

Economic news: Focus will be on Fed Chairman’s testimony to US Congress. Global and Indian Stock indices corrected more than 2% on fears of new lockdown in parts of Europe amidst rising infections. There are reports about financial institutions allegedly moving illicit funds, which also contributed to decline in banking stocks.US Equity markets may also remain on edge ahead of US elections. USD benefitted from risk aversion.

Data highlights : – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar: -US existing home sales

-EU Consumer confidence

USD/INR   73.44 73.26
EUR/USD 1.1764 1.1873 1.1731
GBP/USD 1.2811 1.2967 1.2775
USD/JPY 104.53 104.83 104

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1789 1.1847 1.1930 1.1988 1.1705 1.1648 1.1564
GBP/USD 1.2854 1.2933 1.3046 1.3124 1.2741 1.2662 1.2549
USD/JPY 104.51

 

105.02 105.34 105.85 104.19 103.68

 

103.35

 

USD/INR 73.36 73.47 73.55   73.28 73.17  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1755/1.1580 1.19/1.2020 UP SIDE<1.1755
GBP/USD 1.2670 1.3010 SIDE DN<1.2760
USD/JPY 104.10 107 DN UP>107
USD/INR 72.70 73.80/74.50 DN UP>74.50
USD/CHF 0.90 0.92 DN UP>0.92

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.53. 50 day moving average is at 74.34.200 day moving average is at 73.84. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.70. Important support is at 73.15/72.70 and important resistance is at 73.80 and later at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP:73.50,S1:73.38, S2:73.19, R1:73.69, R2: 73.81.                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.19 and later at 1.2020. Major support is at 1.1755 with next support at 1.1580. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1967. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair is set to enter into bear territory. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.30 and later at around 1.31.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 107. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at at 104.10.

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