FX – Morning Update

FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                      

USDINR opened at 73.37 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.31-73.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.65 , gain of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.48. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.38 on Monday. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.71, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.59. Sep Euro/INR closed at 87.68, GBP/INR at 95.25 and Yen/INR at 69.87.

FII’S have nett sold Rs 1152 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 1647 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till date. In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 85703 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  39417 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.71%. DOW clpsed flat (0%).Nikkei declined 0.39% and Hang seng climbed 0.82%.

Euro is now at 1.1837,Pound at 1.2893,Yen at 105.28.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1960 and WT1Crude at USD 38.55./Brent at USD 40.77.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.676% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.03%.

Economic news: EU economic sentiment improved, signaling progress in economic recovery. Focus is on US Fed meeting.

Data highlights : – US industrial production climbed 0.4% m/m and NY mfrg index improved to 17.

-EU Zew and German Zew survey improved to 73.9 and 77.4 respectively.

-UK claimant count change was reported at 73.7 K and unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

 

Wednesday’s calendar: – US retail sales and FOMC meeting

-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)

USD/INR   73.73 73.31
EUR/USD 1.1837 1.1900 1.1840
GBP/USD 1.2893 1.2926 1.2815
USD/JPY 105.28 105.39 105.26

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1861 1.1882 1.1921 1.1942 1.1822 1.1801 1.1762
GBP/USD 1.2875 1.2935 1.2986 1.3046 1.2824 1.2764 1.2713
USD/JPY 105.51

 

105.72 106.03 106.24 105.20 104.99

 

104.67

 

USD/INR 73.56 73.81 73.98   73.39 73.14

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1755/1.1580 1.2018 UP SIDE<1.1755
GBP/USD 1.2670 1.2980 SIDE DN<1.2760
USD/JPY 105.10/104.10 107 DN UP>107
USD/INR 72.70 73.80/74.50 DN UP>74.50
USD/CHF 0.90 0.92 DN UP>0.92

Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.78. 50 day moving average is at 74.50.200 day moving average is at 73.81. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.70. Important support is at 72.70 and important resistance is at 73.80 and later at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

 

Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP:73.65,S1:73.47, S2:73.23, R1:73.89, R2: 74.07                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.2018 and later at 1.21. Major support is at 1.1755 with next support at 1.1580. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1967. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair is set to enter into bear territory. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.2980 and later at around 1.31.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105.10. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at 105.10 and later at 104.10.

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