FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 73.40 y’day and the pair traded in the 73.26-73.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 73.48 , loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 73.54. RBI reference rate was fixed at 73.47 on Friday. Sep USD/INR closed at 73.59, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 73.65. Sep Euro/INR closed at 87.41, GBP/INR at 94.82 and Yen/INR at 69.46.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 1152 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 1647 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till date. In this financial year, FII’S have nett bought Rs 85703 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 39417 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.21%. DOW climbed 327 points (1.18%).Nikkei climbed 0.65% and Hang seng climbed 0.56%.
Euro is now at 1.1889,Pound at 1.2920,Yen at 106.21.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1975 and WT1Crude at USD 37.27./Brent at USD 39.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.667% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.05%.
Economic news: Indian IIP contracted -10.4% in July as compared to July 2019. Revised data showed industrial production contracted 15.7% in June and 34% in May. July IIP was 8.44% compared to June 2020. Manufacturing, mining and electricity contracted 11.1%,13% & 2.5% respectively.
Data highlights : – EU Industrial production climbed 4.1% m/m.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US industrial production and NY mfrg index
-EU Zew and German Zew surveys
-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate.
Indian CPI inflation was reported at 6.69%, above RBI target of 6%.Food inflation climbed to 9.05% y/y in Aug
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed below 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 73.80. 50 day moving average is at 74.50.200 day moving average is at 73.80. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.70. Important support is at 72.70 and important resistance is at 73.80 and later at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP:73.55,S1:73.39, S2:73.20, R1:73.74, R2: 73.90
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.2018 and later at 1.21. Major support is at 1.1755 with next support at 1.1580. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1967. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.
GBP/USD: The pair is set to enter into bear territory. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3484 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2670 . Important resistance is at 1.2980 and later at around 1.31.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 105.10. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at 105.10 and later at 104.10.
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