28/06/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 68.42 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.42-68.65 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.60, gain of 36 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.24.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.52. July USD/INR closed at 68.89, gain of 42 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.47. July Euro/INR closed at 80.20, GBP/INR at 90.95 and Yen/INR at 62.73.
FII’S have sold Rs 4844 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 9290 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1405 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 40602 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.91% y’day. DOW climbed 30 points (0.12%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.31% and Hang seng declined 1.82% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1567, Pound at 1.3115,Yen at 110.16
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1254 and WT1Crude at USD 72.57
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.88% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.83%.
Economic news: Capital outflows, increase in Crude prices and ongoing trade turmoil roiled Rupee sentiment further. Oil prices rose on Wednesday following supply disruptions in Libya and Canada and after US officials told oil importers to stop buying Iranian crude from November. There are reports that US President may refrain from unilateral executive action against China and may strengthen existing laws to protect US intellectual property.
Data Highlights US durables order declined -0.6% m/m and pending home sales.
Thursday’s calendar: US weekly jobless claims
-EU GDP(final) and German Gfk consumer confidence
| USD/INR | 68.65 | 68.42 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1567 | 1.1672 | 1.1541 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3115 | 1.3234 | 1.3107 |
| USD/JPY | 110.16 | 110.49 | 109.69 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1592 | 1.1643 | 1.1723 | 1.1774 | 1.1512 | 1.1461 | 1.1381 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3153 | 1.3199 | 1.3280 | 1.3326 | 1..3072 | 1.3026 | 1.2945 |
| USD/JPY | 110.13
|
110.57 | 110.93 | 111.37
|
109.77 | 109.33 | 108.97
|
| USD/INR | 68.55 | 68.69 | 68.79 | 68.45 | 68.31 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.31 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 110.90/111.40 | UP | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 68.43/67.70 | 68.90 | UP | SIDE<67.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.62. 50 day moving average is at 67.37. 200 day moving average is at 65.20. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 67.70. Important resistance is at 68.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.80,S1:68.66, S2:68.44, R1:69.02, R2:69.16.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.31 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.31.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.92. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.
