27/06/2018
USDINR opened at 68.13 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.07-68.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.24, gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.12.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.14. June USD/INR closed at 68.26, gain of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.13. June Euro/INR closed at 79.71, GBP/INR at 90.36 and Yen/INR at 62.24.
FII’S have sold Rs 4844 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 9290 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1405 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 40602 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.06% y’day. DOW declined 328 points (1.33%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.02% and Hang seng declined 0.28% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1660, Pound at 1.3230,Yen at 109.92
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1257 and WT1Crude at USD 70.85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.88% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.83%.
Economic news: US President said the administration is “finishing” the study of tariffs on cars from EU. Trump blamed EU again as “they have long taken advantage of the U.S. in the form of Trade Barriers and Tariffs.” Trump promised “in the end it will all even out – and it won’t take very long!” Crude continued to climb higher despite Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries agreement to increase supplies.
Data Highlights: US House price index climbed 6.6% y/y and consumer confidence dipped to 126.4.
Wednesday’s calendar: US durables order and pending home sales.
| USD/INR | 68.25 | 68.07 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1660 | 1.1720 | 1.1635 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3230 | 1.3292 | 1.3195 |
| USD/JPY | 109.92 | 110.20 | 109.37 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1668 | 1.1701 | 1.1753 | 1.1786 | 1.1616 | 1.1583 | 1.1531 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3236 | 1.3277 | 1.3333 | 1.3374 | 1.3180 | 1.3139 | 1.3083 |
| USD/JPY | 109.90
|
110.43 | 110.73 | 111.26
|
109.60 | 109.07 | 108.77
|
| USD/INR | 68.19 | 68.30 | 68.37 | 68.13 | 68.01 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.31 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 110.90/111.40 | UP | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.55/67.30 | 68.40 | UP | SIDE<67.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.62. 50 day moving average is at 67.25. 200 day moving average is at 65.20. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is at 68.40/68.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 68.19,S1:68.12, S2:68, R1:68.32, R2:68.38.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.31 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.31.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.92. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.
