USDINR opened at 74.96 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.84-74.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.85 , loss of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.03. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75 on Thursday. Aug USD/INR closed at 74.94, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.16. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.30, GBP/INR at 98.45 and Yen/INR at 70.87.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 33386 Cr of Indian Equities in August till date . FII’S have nett sold Rs 202 Cr of Indian debt securities in August till date. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.53% on Friday. DOW climbed 190 points (0.69%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 0.17% and Hang seng climbed 1.30% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1796,Pound at 1.3090,Yen at 105.82.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1947 and WT1Crude at USD 42.30/Brent at USD 44.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.652% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.04%.
Economic news: Indian G-SEC yields has spurted and has pushed USDINR fwd premia higher by 20 bps. Rising inflation and Govt fiscal deficit are contributing to higher yields. Euro weakened as recent market developments were not backed by economic reality. Euro PMI data slipped with French manufacturing entering into contraction mode again. However, UK data was robust.
Data highlights : – US existing home sales climbed to 5.86 mn.
-EU PMI(flash-mfrg) dipped marginally to 51.7 and PMI(services) declined to 50.1
-UK retail sales climbed 3.6% m/m and PMI(mfrg) climbed to 55.3, PMI(services) climbed steeply to 60.1.
Monday’s calendar: – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 74.97 | 74.84 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1796 | 1.1864 | 1.1755 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3090 | 1.3255 | 1.3060 |
| USD/JPY | 105.82 | 106.06 | 105.45 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1805 | 1.1855 | 1.1914 | 1.1746 | 1.1696 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3135 | 1.3210 | 1.3330 | 1.3015 | 1.2940 | ||
| USD/JPY | 105.77
|
106.10 | 106.38 | 105.48 | 105.16 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 74.88 | 74.93 | 75.02 | 74.79 | 74.74 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.17/1.1540 | 1.1965 | UP | SIDE<1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2980/1.2810/1.2670 | 1.3270 | UP | SIDE<1.2980 |
| USD/JPY | 105.30/104.10 | 107 | DN | UP>107 |
| USD/INR | 74.50 | 75.50 | DN | UP>75.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9010 | 0.9240 | DN | UP>0.9240 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.88. 50 day moving average is at 75.16.200 day moving average is at 73.52. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.50. Important support is at 74.50 and important resistance is at 75.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP:74.98,S1:74.81, S2:74.70, R1:75.10, R2: 75.26
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1965 and later at 1.21. Major support is at 1.17 with next support at 1.14. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1967. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.
GBP/USD: The pair may have peaked temporarily but is above major major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3270 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2980 and later at 1.2670. Important resistance is at 1.3270.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 107. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at 104.10.
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