USDINR opened at 74.87 Y’day and the pair traded in the 74.79-74.91 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.89 , loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.90. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.77 on Friday. Aug USD/INR closed at 74.93, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.02. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.72, GBP/INR at 98.04 and Yen/INR at 70.45.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 15316 Cr of Indian Equities in August till date . FII’S have nett bought Rs 1372 Cr of Indian debt securities in August till date. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.61% y’day. DOW declined 86 points (0.31%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.83% and Hang seng climbed 0.65% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1884,Pound at 1.3127,Yen at 105.72.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1997 and WT1Crude at USD 42.75/Brent at USD 45.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.68% and 3 m libor closed at 0.25%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.96%.
Economic news: Indian Trade deficit was reported at USD 4.8 bn, as against a surplus of 0.8 bn in June. However, the deficit was lower compared to July 2019. Exports declined 10.2% y/y to USD 23.6 bn, and Imports declined 28.4% y/y to USD 28.5 bn. In Apr-July period, trade deficit stood at USD 13.9 bn (USD 59.4 bn in the same period last year), with exports at USD 75 bn (down 30.2% y/y) and Imports at 88.9 bn (down 46.7% y/y).
FX reserves climbed to USD 538 bn with RBI accumulating USD 60 bn in a year.
Data highlights : – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar: – US building permits and housing starts
| USD/INR | 74.91 | 74.79 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1884 | 1.1882 | 1.1830 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3127 | 1.3122 | 1.3074 |
| USD/JPY | 105.72 | 106.65 | 105.94 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1862 | 1.1894 | 1.1914 | 1.1946 | 1.1842 | 1.1810 | 1.1791 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3101 | 1.3128 | 1.3149 | 1.3176 | 1.3080 | 1.3053 | 1.3032 |
| USD/JPY | 106.20
|
106.46 | 106.91 | 107.16 | 105.75 | 105.49 | 105.04
|
| USD/INR | 74.86 | 74.93 | 74.98 | 74.81 | 74.74 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.17/1.1540 | 1.19/1.21 | UP | SIDE<1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2980/1.2850/1.2670 | 1.32 | UP | SIDE<1.2670 |
| USD/JPY | 105.30/104.10 | 107 | DN | UP>107 |
| USD/INR | 74.50 | 75.50 | DN | UP>75.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9050 | 0.9350 | DN | UP>0.9350 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.87. 50 day moving average is at 75.23.200 day moving average is at 73.52. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.50. Important support is at 74.50 and important resistance is at 75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP:74.92,S1:74.85, S2:74.78, R1:74.99, R2: 75.06
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.19 and later at 1.21. Major support is at 1.17 with next support at 1.14. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1917. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is above major major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3187 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2980 and later at 1.2670. Important resistance is at 1.32.
USD/YEN: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.10. Next important resistance is at 107. Important support is at 104.10.
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