USDINR opened at 74.81 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.78-74.96 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.93 , unchanged for USD as against prior close of 74.93. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.85 y’day. Aug USD/INR closed at 75.11, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.01. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.98, GBP/INR at 98.92 and Yen/INR at 71.23.

FII’S have nett bought Rs 1130 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett sold Rs 887 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.89% y’day. DOW climbed 185 points (0.68%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.43% and Hang seng declined 0.69% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1865,Pound at 1.3132,Yen at 105.56.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2067 and WT1Crude at USD 42.12/Brent at USD 45.23.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.52% and 3 m libor closed at 0.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.85%.

Economic news: RBI maintained status quo in rates. As per RBI MPC, inflation is expected to remain elevated and growth will be negative in H1. RBI extended restructuring framework for MSME’S and announced special restructuring window for corporate and personal loans.BoE left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank Rate is maintained at 0.1%. The asset purchase target is also held at GBP 745B. 

Data highlights : – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 1186k.

-German factory orders climbed 27.9% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 58.1.


Friday’s calendar: -US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate

-German industrial production.

USD/INR   74.96 74.78
EUR/USD 1.1865 1.1917 1.1818
GBP/USD 1.3132 1.3186 1.3119
USD/JPY 105.56 105.71 105.31

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1870 1.1922 1.1968 1.2020 1.1823 1.1772 1.1725
GBP/USD 1.3148 1.3177 1.3215 1.3244 1.3110 1.3081 1.3043
USD/JPY 105.53


105.75 105.93 106.16 105.35 105.13 104.95


USD/INR 74.89 75 75.07   74.82 74.71  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1625/1.1540 1.19/1.21 UP DN<1.1420
GBP/USD 1.28/1.2670 1.32 UP SIDE<1.2670
USD/JPY 104.10 106/106.60/107.45 DN UP>106.65
USD/INR 74.50 75.50 DN UP>75.50
USD/CHF 0.9050 0.9350 DN UP>0.9350

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.96. 50 day moving average is at 75.32.200 day moving average is at 73.35. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.50. Important support is at 74.50 and important resistance is at 75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.


Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP:75.06,S1:74.97, S2:74.83, R1:75.20, R2: 75.29                        

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.21. Major support is at 1.1420. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1165. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is above major major moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2250 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2810 and later at 1.2670. Important resistance is at 1.32.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.15. Next important resistance is at 106 and later at 106.65. Important support is at 104.10.

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