USDINR opened at 74.90 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.88-75.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.01 , gain of 20 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.81. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.97 y’day. Aug USD/INR closed at 75.45, gain of 45 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.46, GBP/INR at 98.19 and Yen/INR at 71.07.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 1130 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett sold Rs 887 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.57% y’day. DOW climbed 236 points (0.89%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 2.24% and Hang seng declined 0.56% y’day.
Euro closed the week at 1.1766,Pound at 1.3078,Yen at 106.13.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1980 and WT1Crude at USD 40.69/Brent at USD 43.79.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.56% and 3 m libor closed at 0.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.85%.
Economic news: US mfrg data beat expectations and supported USD and Equities.
Data highlights : – US ISM (mfrg) climbed to 54.2 and construction spending declined -0.7% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg) was reported at 51.8.
-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 53.3.
Tuesday’s calendar: US factory orders
-EU PPI
| USD/INR | 75.03 | 74.88 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1766 | 1.1797 | 1.1696 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3078 | 1.3113 | 1.3004 |
| USD/JPY | 106.13 | 106.48 | 105.57 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1752 | 1.1808 | 1.1853 | 1.1909 | 1.1707 | 1.1651 | 1.1605 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3064 | 1.3124 | 1.3173 | 1.3232 | 1.3015 | 1.2955 | 1.2906 |
| USD/JPY | 106
|
106.43 | 106.91 | 107.33 | 105.52 | 105.09 | 104.61
|
| USD/INR | 74.97 | 75.06 | 75.12 | 74.91 | 74.82 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1625/1.1540 | 1.19/1.21 | UP | DN<1.1420 |
| GBP/USD | 1.28/1.2670 | 1.32 | UP | SIDE<1.2670 |
| USD/JPY | 104.10 | 106/106.60/107.45 | DN | UP>106.65 |
| USD/INR | 74.50 | 75.50 | DN | UP>75.50 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9050 | 0.9350 | DN | UP>0.9350 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.95. 50 day moving average is at 75.36.200 day moving average is at 73.35. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.50. Important support is at 74.50 and important resistance is at 75.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP:75.33,S1:75.17, S2:74.90, R1:75.60, R2: 75.76
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.21. Major support is at 1.1420. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1165. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is above major major moving average.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2250 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important support is at 1.2810 and later at 1.2670. Important resistance is at 1.32.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.15. Next important resistance is at 106 and later at 106.65. Important support is at 104.10.
