USDINR opened at 74.83 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.80-74.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.85 , gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.80. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.84 y’day. Aug USD/INR closed at 74.97, loss of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.05. Aug Euro/INR closed at 88.25, GBP/INR at 97.70 and Yen/INR at 71.42.

FII’S have nett bought Rs 2165 Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett sold Rs 1383 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.90% y’day. DOW declined 225 points (0.85%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.26% and Hang seng declined 0.69% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1776,Pound at 1.2985,Yen at 105.06.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1959 and WT1Crude at USD 40.34/Brent at USD 43.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.54% and 3 m libor closed at 0.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.85%.

Economic news: US GDP(advance estimate) showed that US contracted -32.9% q/q. Deep contraction has raised doubts over the incipient signs of recovery. Virus uncertainity and inability of US Congress to quickly pass stimulus bills are aiding pullback in riskier assets. Gold will continue to find favor due to low interest rates and stalled economic recovery. Stocks did not show any enthusiasm to Fed’s status quo position as the focus was beyond what the Fed could do.

U.S Equity markets, oil and USD slid on Thursday as US GDP data underscored the deep economic impact of the coronavirus. U.S. President Donald Trump also  raised the possibility of delaying the November election.


Data highlights : – US weekly jobless claims was reported at 1434k. -EU unemployment rate inched higher to 7.8%.

Friday’s calendar: US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index

-German retail sales and CPI(flash)

USD/INR   74.88 74.80
EUR/USD 1.1776 1.1805 1.1714
GBP/USD 1.2985 1.3012 1.2912
USD/JPY 105.06 105.25 104.78

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1826 1.1921 1.1971 1.2066 1.1776 1.1681 1.1631
GBP/USD 1.3060 1.3175 1.3235 1.3350 1.3000 1.2885 1.2824
USD/JPY 104.88


105.09 105.51 105.72 104.47 104.25 103.84


USD/INR 74.84 74.88 74.92   74.80 74.76  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1450/1.1350 1.1850 SIDE DN<1.1165
GBP/USD 1.2480/1.2250 1.2820/1.32 UP SIDE<1.2550
USD/JPY 104.50 107.45/108.10 DN UP>108.10
USD/INR 74.50 75.50 DN UP>75.50
USD/CHF 0.92 0.9320/0.95 DN UP>0.97


Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 74.94. 50 day moving average is at 75.40.200 day moving average is at 73.25. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 75.50. Important support is at 74.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP:75.05,S1:74.98, S2:74.87, R1:75.15, R2: 75.23                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850. Major support is at 1.1450 and later at 1.1350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1165. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bullish and is above major major moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2250 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important resistance is at 1.2810 and later at 1.32. Important support is at 1.2480 and later at 1.2250.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.15. Next important resistance is at 107.45 and later at 108.15. Important support is at 104.50.

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