25/06/2018
USDINR opened lower at 67.95 on Friday and the pair traded in the 67.70-67.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.83, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.98.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.77. June USD/INR closed at 67.83, loss of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.01. June Euro/INR closed at 78.97, GBP/INR at 90.10 and Yen/INR at 61.59.
FII’S have sold Rs 4844 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 9290 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have sold Rupees 1405 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 40602 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.75% on Friday. DOW climbed 119 points (0.49%) on Friday.Nikkei declined 0.78% and Hang seng climbed 0.15% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.1654 , Pound at 1.3268,Yen at 109.97
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1271 and WT1Crude at USD 69.25.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.90% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.82%.
Economic news: OPEC decided to increase supply by 1 million barrell per day. However, analysts expect only 7 lac barrell addition as some countries will be unable to increase supplies. Iran and Venezuela sanctions added to supply losses last month driving prices even higher. Despite supply increase announcement, WTI and Brent crude rallied as the deal lacked specifity. US President tweeted urging Oil producing nations to keep prices in check. Considering the Global leadership focus on Crude supply and price, Crude prices could stabilise below USD 70 in coming months.
In a fresh salvo, US President warned EU of 20% tariff on EU cars imported into US, if EU does not break entry barriers for US cars.
Data Highlights: EU PMI(mfrg) was in line with consensus at 55 and PMI(services) climbed to 55.
Monday’s calendar: US new home sales
-German Ifo survey
| USD/INR | 67.94 | 67.70 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1654 | 1.1675 | 1.1601 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3268 | 1.3315 | 1.3245 |
| USD/JPY | 109.97 | 110.22 | 109.81 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1643 | 1.1685 | 1.1717 | 1.1611 | 1.1569 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3276 | 1.3307 | 1.3346 | 1.3237 | 1.3206 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110
|
110.19 | 110.41 |
|
109.78 | 109.59 |
|
| USD/INR | 67.82 | 67.94 | 68.06 | 67.70 | 67.58 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.31 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 110.90/111.40 | UP | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.55/67.30 | 68.40 | UP | SIDE<67.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.56. 50 day moving average is at 67.20. 200 day moving average is at 65.20. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is at 68.40/68.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 67.83,S1:67.71, S2:67.59, R1:67.95, R2:68.07.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1850. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.31 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.31.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.92. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.
