FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 82.96 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.67-82.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.73, loss of 21 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.94.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.92 on 23/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 82.72, loss of 28 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83. Aug Euro/INR closed at 89.48, GBP/INR at 104.52 and Yen/INR at 57.03. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 602 bn as on Aug 11 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (23/08) |
| USDINR | 82.92 |
| EURINR | 90.05 |
| GBPINR | 105.72 |
| JPYINR | 56.93 |
In Aug, FPI’S have bought Rs 9167 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4388 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 47 points (0.25%) y’day. US S&P climbed 48 points (1.10%) . Asian markets are trading higher today.
Euro is now at 1.0915, Pound at 1.2776, Yen at 145.91.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1945 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 82.85.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.20% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.
Economic news: Rupee gained on IPO related infows. Despite USD’S strength against majors, Rupee gained 21 ps y’day.
US PMI Manufacturing fell form 49.0 to 47.0 in August. PMI Services fell from 52.3 to 51.0. PMI Composite fell from 52.0 to 50.4. Equity markets rallied on hopes of a Fed rate pause after decline in PMI reading. A near-stalling of business activity in August raises doubts over the strength of US economic growth in the third quarter. The survey shows that the service sector-led acceleration of growth in the second quarter has faded, accompanied by a further fall in factory output.
Rising wage pressures as well as increased energy prices have meanwhile pushed input cost inflation higher, which will raise concerns over the stickiness of consumer price inflation in the months ahead. One upside is that weak demand is starting to limit pricing power, which should help keep a lid on inflation around the 3% mark.”
UK PMI Composite fell from 50.8 to 47.9, a 31-month low, and first contraction since January.
Euro zone Composite PMI declined to 47.0, its lowest in 33 months.
EU GDP is now expected to contract.
USD rallied on relative better growth differentials.
Data highlights: – US new home sales climbed to 714k.
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 43.7 and PMI(services- flash) declined to 48.3.
– UK PMI(mfrg-flash) declined to 42.5 and PMI(services- flash) declined to 48.7.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims and Durables order
| USD/INR | 82.97 | 82.67 | ||
| EUR/USD |
1.0864 |
1.0871 | 1.0802 | |
| GBP/USD |
1.2711 |
1.2766 | 1.2615 | |
| USD/JPY |
144.94 |
145.82 | 144.54 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0869 | 1.0905 | 1.0968 | 1.1004 | 1.0806 | 1.0770 | 1.0708 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2750 | 1.2783 | 1.2834 | 1.2867 | 1.2698 | 1.2666 | 1.2614 |
| USD/JPY | 145.93 | 146.37 | 146.84 | 147.28 | 145.46 | 145.02 | 144.54 |
| USD/INR | 82.79 | 82.91 | 83.09 | 82.61 | 82.49 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0835/1.0765 | 1.0925/1.1065 | SIDE | UP>1.1070 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2620/1.2350 | 1.2820/1.30/1.3150 | SIDE | UP>1.2820 |
| USD/JPY | 144/142 | 147 | UP | SIDE<142 |
| USD/INR | 82.60/82.32 | 82.86/83.14 | SIDE | UP>82.86 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8565/0.8440 | 0.8820 | DN | SIDE>0.8820 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.62. 50 day moving average is at 82.32.200 day moving average is at 82.25. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.60 and important resistance is at 82.86/83.14/83.30. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 82.81, S1:82.59, S2:82.48, R1:82.93, R2:83.14.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 50 day average, but still above 200 day major moving average. Major resistance is at 1.0925/1.1065/1.1140/1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day moving averages . Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important supports are at 1.2620/1.2590/1.2350. Important resistance is at 1.2820/1.30/1.3145.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 147 and support is at 144/142.
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