USDINR opened at 75.23 Y’day and the pair traded in the 75.15-75.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.19 , gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.15. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.24 y’day. July USD/INR closed at 75.29, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.25. July Euro/INR closed at 85.86, GBP/INR at 94.45 and Yen/INR at 70.28.

FII’S have nett sold Rs 267 sold Cr of Indian Equities in July . FII’S have nett sold Rs 402 Cr of Indian debt securities in July. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.15% y’day. DOW declined 135 points (0.50%) y’day.Nikkei declined 0.76% and Hang seng declined 2.04% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1414,Pound at 1.2574,Yen at 106.97.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1796 and WT1Crude at USD 40.75/Brent at USD 43.30.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.615% and 3 m libor closed at 0.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.76%.

Economic news: Indian Trade account registered a surplus of USD 0.79 bn in June as against trade deficit of USD 3.15 bn in May. Imports contracted -47.6% and exports contracted -12.4%.

 ECB left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. It also maintained its asset puchase program. ECB “expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

Chinese Q2 GDP expanded 3.2% as against a decline of -6.8% in Q1.

Data highlights : US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 1300k and retail sales climbed 7.5% y/y.

-UK unemployment rate was reported at 3.9% and claimant count change was reported at -28.1k.

Friday’s calendar: – US building permits and housing starts


USD/INR   75.29 75.15
EUR/USD 1.1382 1.1443 1.1371
GBP/USD 1.2561 1.2624 1.2520
USD/JPY 107.26 107.40 106.83

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1429 1.1472 1.1501 1.1357 1.1328 1.1285
GBP/USD 1.2568 1.2616 1.2673 1.2721 1.2512 1.2463 1.2407
USD/JPY 107.18


107.53 107.75 108.10 106.96 106.61 106.39


USD/INR 75.21 75.27 75.35   75.13 75.07  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1165/1.1020 1.1425 SIDE DN<1.10
GBP/USD 1.2250/1.2075 1.27/1.2810 SIDE UP>1.27
USD/JPY 106 108.10/109.85 SIDE UP>108.10
USD/INR 75.08/74.93/74.50 75.50 DN UP>75.70
USD/CHF 0.9320/0.92 0.95 DN UP>0.97

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.35. 50 day moving average is at 75.58.200 day moving average is at 73.05. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 74.50. Important support is at 74.95/74.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP:75.30,S1:75.21, S2:75.14, R1:75.37, R2: 75.46                         

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1425. Major support is at 1.1165 and later at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1168. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2250 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important resistance is at 1.27 and later at 1.2810. Important support is at 1.2250 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 108.15. Next important resistance is at 108.15. Important support is at 106.

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