22/06/2018
USDINR opened higher at 68.22 Y’day and the pair traded in the 67.98-68.24 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.98, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.07.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.19. June USD/INR closed at 68.01, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.12. June Euro/INR closed at 78.50, GBP/INR at 89.86 and Yen/INR at 61.58.
FII’S have sold Rs 315 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 4753 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3122 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 36066 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.27% y’day. DOW declined 42 points (-0.17%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 0.61% and Hang seng declined 1.35% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1611 , Pound at 1.3263,Yen at 110.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1269 and WT1Crude at USD 66.47.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.93% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.83%.
Economic news: BOE voted 6-3 to leave the Bank rate on hold at 0.5%. One more member joined to vote for rate hike this time, indicating possibility of rate hike in August. The majority preferred to stand on the sideline in June, given the softer global growth outlook and weak manufacturing output and goods exports in April. These members preferred to see more data in these areas before adopting for a rate hike. The minutes added that dissenting members saw the labor and pay settlement indicators as contain “upside risks to the expected pickup in average weekly earnings and unit wage costs”.
Data Highlights: US Weekly jobless claims declined to 218k, Phily Fed mfrg index declined to 19.9 and leading index
-EU Consumer confidence.
Friday’s calendar: EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 68.24 | 67.98 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1611 | 1.1633 | 1.1509 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3263 | 1.3270 | 1.3103 |
| USD/JPY | 110 | 110.76 | 109.84 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1582 | 1.1655 | 1.1706 | 1.1779 | 1.1531 | 1.1458 | 1.1407 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3206 | 1.3309 | 1.3373 | 1.3476 | 1.3142 | 1.3039 | 1.2975 |
| USD/JPY | 110.19
|
110.54 | 111.11 | 111.46
|
109.62 | 109.27 | 108.70
|
| USD/INR | 68.06 | 68.15 | 68.33 | 67.88 | 67.79 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3205/1.3050 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | SIDE | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.78/67.30 | 68.40 | UP | SIDE<67.78 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.56. 50 day moving average is at 67.14. 200 day moving average is at 65.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is at 68.40/68.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 68.09,S1:67.91, S2:67.81, R1:68.19, R2:68.37.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.10. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75.
