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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 1,350 Comments
  • November 9, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.26 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.23-83.29 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.28, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.26.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.27 on 08/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.29, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.23. Nov Euro/INR closed at 88.99, GBP/INR at 102.18 and Yen/INR at 55.49. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a.  FX reserves climbed by USD 2.5 bn and stood at USD 586 bn as on Oct 27 th.  

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (08/11)

USDINR

83.27

EURINR

88.98

GBPINR

102.22

JPYINR

55.26

In Nov, FPI’S have sold Rs 2979 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 1185 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 36 points (0.19%) y’day. US S&P climbed 4 points (0.10%) . Nikkei declined 0.26% and Hang Seng declined 0.48%.

Euro is now at 1.0710, Pound at 1.2285, Yen at 150.93.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1950 and WT1Crude at USD 75.70/Brent at USD 80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.50% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.28%.

Economic news: ECB Governing Council member expressed a steadfast stance on interest rates, emphasizing the need for absolute certainty that inflation is under control before considering any reductions. Bundesbank President likened the journey toward ECB’s inflation target to an arduous “last mile,” which “may well be the hardest”.

Investors are now turning their attention to the forthcoming comments from Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. 

Data highlights: – – EU retail sales declined -0.3% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : US Weekly jobless claims

USD/INR

 

  

 83.29

83.23

EUR/USD

1.0710

  

1.0717

1.0659

GBP/USD

1.2285

  

1.2306

1.2240

USD/JPY

150.93

  

151.07

150.34

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0694

1.0729

1.0752

1.0787

1.0671

1.0636

1.0613

GBP/USD

1.2276

1.2312

1.2342

1.2378

1.2246

1.2210

1.2181

USD/JPY

150.79

151.24

151.53

151.98

150.51

150.05

149.77

USD/INR

83.26

83.30

83.32

 

83.23

83.20

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0510/1.0450

1.08

SIDE

DN<1.0510

GBP/USD

1.2070/1.2035

1.2440/1.2550

SIDE

DN<1.2070

USD/JPY

148.50/146

151.75

UP

SIDE<148.50

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.35/83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.89

0.9050

UP

DN<0.89

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.23. 50 day moving average is at 83.13.200 day moving average is at 82.47. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.28, S1:83.25, S2:83.22, R1:83.31, R2:83.34.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.10 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 100/200 day moving averages, but above 50 day average. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0510. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

 GBP/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2070/1.2035. Important resistance is at 1.2440/1.2535.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 151.75 and support is at 148.60/146.

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