FX MORNING UPDATE 

USDINR opened at 74.50 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.50-74.82 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.68 , gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.64. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.68 y’day. July USD/INR closed at 74.76, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 74.83. July Euro/INR closed at 84.60, GBP/INR at 93.57 and Yen/INR at 69.55.

FII’S nett bought Rs 23289 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S nett sold Rs 1525 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.47% y’day. DOW climbed 459 points (1.78%) y’day.. Nikkei climbed 1.83% and Hang seng climbed 3.81% y’day.

Euro is now  at 1.1315,Pound at 1.2500,Yen at 107.37.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1794 and WT1Crude at USD 40.40/Brent at USD 42.85.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.67% and 3 m libor closed at 0.31%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.84%.

Economic news: Global Equities surged despite rising Corona infections. Markets looked past concerns over Corona virus. Stocks also rallied on a sharp rebound in U.S. services industry activity in June, almost returning to pre-pandemic levels. Yuan gained as China seems set to foster a bullish equity market.

Data highlights : US ISM(non mfrg) climbed to 57.1.

-EU sentix investor confidence dipped to -18.2 , retail sales and German factory orders climbed 10.4% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 55.3.

Tuesday’s calendar: – German industrial production.

 

USD/INR   74.82 74.50
EUR/USD 1.1315 1.1346 1.1240
GBP/USD 1.2500 1.2521 1.2459
USD/JPY 107.37 107.78 107.25

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1301 1.1355 1.1400 1.1454 1.1257 1.1202 1.1158
GBP/USD 1.2496 1.2519 1.2543 1.2566 1.2472 1.2449 1.2425
USD/JPY 107.46

 

107.67 107.98 108.19 107.14 106.94 106.62

 

USD/INR 74.66 74.82 74.98   74.50 74.34  

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1165/1.1020 1.1425 SIDE DN<1.10
GBP/USD 1.2250/1.2075 1.2530/1.27 SIDE UP>1.27
USD/JPY 106 108.10/109.85 SIDE UP>108.10
USD/INR 74.40/74.10 75.25/75.50 DN UP>75.50
USD/CHF 0.94 0.96/0.9775 DN UP>0.97

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.66. 50 day moving average is at 75.66.200 day moving average is at 72.88. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.30. Important support is at 74.40/74.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP:74.78,S1:74.58, S2:74.40, R1:74.96, R2: 75.16                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1425. Major support is at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1425. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important resistance is at 1.2810. Important support is at 1.2250 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106. Next important resistance is at 108.10. Important support is at 106.

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