USDINR opened at 75.50 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.98-75.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.01 , loss of 58 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.59. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.48 y’day. July USD/INR closed at 74.86, loss of 96 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.82. July Euro/INR closed at 84.45, GBP/INR at 93.63 and Yen/INR at 69.67.

FII’S have nett bought Rs 24351 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett sold Rs 2704 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.17% y’day. DOW climbed 92 points (0.36%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.11% and Hang seng climbed 2.85% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1242,Pound at 1.2464,Yen at 107.56.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1787 and WT1Crude at USD 40.43/Brent at USD 42.90.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.67% and 3 m libor closed at 0.31%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.83%.

Economic news: Rupee gained below 75 as Reliance related inflows hit the market. RBI refrained from buying USD and sell stop losses for institutional positions got triggered. Vaccine hopes also contributed to positive sentiment in both Equity and FX markets. USDINR has broken 3 months low and could test 74.50, enroute to 73.50 over the next few months. RBI could mop up USD and stem Rupee gains.

US non-farm payroll employment grew 4800k in June, well above expectation of 3000k. But it’s still -14.7m, or -0.6%, below the February level. May’s figure was revised up to 2699k.


Unemployment rate dropped back to 11.1%, down from 13.3%, better than expectation of 12.2%. Labor force participation rate also rose 0.7% to 61.5%, even though it’s still -1.9% below February’s level. Average hourly earnings dropped -1.2% mom, worse than expectation of -0.6% mom.

Data highlights : US Weekly jobless claims declined to 1427k.

-EU unemployment rate climbed to 7.4%.

Friday’s calendar: – EU PMI(services)

USD/INR   75.53 74.98
EUR/USD 1.1242 1.1303 1.1222
GBP/USD 1.2464 1.2531 1.2456
USD/JPY 107.56 107.74 107.33

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1255 1.1288 1.1336 1.1369 1.1207 1.1174 1.1125
GBP/USD 1.2485 1.2514 1.2561 1.2590 1.2439 1.2409 1.2363
USD/JPY 107.52


107.71 107.93 108.12 107.30 107.11 106.89


USD/INR 75.17 75.36 75.72   74.81 74.62  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1165/1.1020 1.1425 SIDE DN<1.0950
GBP/USD 1.23/1.2075 1.2810 DN UP>1.2810
USD/JPY 106 108.45/109.85 DN UP>108.45
USD/INR 74.90/74.65/74.50 75.50 SIDE UP>76.30
USD/CHF 0.94 0.9675/0.9775 DN UP>0.98

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.75. 50 day moving average is at 75.75.200 day moving average is at 72.88. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.30. Important support is at 74.90/74.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP:75.12,S1:74.54, S2:74.24, R1:75.43, R2: 76                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1425. Major support is at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1425. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important resistance is at 1.2810. Important support is at 1.23 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110. Next important resistance is at 108.45. Important support is at 106.

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