USDINR opened at 75.52 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.48-75.60 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.59 , gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.51. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.58 y’day. July USD/INR closed at 75.82, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.78. July Euro/INR closed at 84.89, GBP/INR at 93.93 and Yen/INR at 70.52.

FII’S have nett bought Rs 24351 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett sold Rs 2704 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.20% y’day. DOW declined 78 points (0.30%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.75% and Hang seng climbed 0.52% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1255,Pound at 1.2417,Yen at 107.46.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1778 and WT1Crude at USD 39.70/Brent at USD 41.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.68% and 3 m libor closed at 0.31%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.88%.

Economic news: :- Indian Current account turned surplus in Q4 of 2019/20.  CAD stood at 0.1% of GDP as against -0.7% during the same period in 2018-19. Q3 Current account deficit was reported at 2.6 bn USD (0.4% of GDP). For the full financial year 2019-29, CAD stood at 0.9% of GDP as against 2.1% in 2018-19. Trade deficit in Q4 was at USD 35 bn. BOP surplus was at USD 18.8 bn. FX reserves increased by USD 59.5 bn to USD 507.6 bn.

Global PMI(mfrg) data was all above expectations. US Pvt sector added 2369 jobs and prior month data was revised upwards to 3065k.

Data highlights : US ISM(mfrg) climbed to 52.6, ADP employment report showed addition of 2369 k jobs and construction spending declined -2.1% m/m.

-German retail sales climbed 13.9% m/m and PMI(mfrg) climbed to 52.3.

-UK PMI(mfrg) climbed to 50.1.

Japanese PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.1 in June, up from May’s 38.4.

Thursday’s calendar: – US Weekly jobless claims and NFP

-EU unemployment rate

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.78. 50 day moving average is at 75.78.200 day moving average is at 72.88. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.30. Important support is at 75.40/75.25. Spot closed at its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP:75.78,S1:75.74, S2:75.64, R1:75.88, R2: 75.92                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1425. Major support is at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1425. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.14. Important resistance is at 1.2810. Important support is at 1.23 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110. Next important resistance is at 108.45. Important support is at 106.

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