20/06/2018
USDINR opened at 68 Y’day and the pair traded in the 67.97-68.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.38, gain of 40 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.98.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.15. June USD/INR closed at 68.44, gain of 39 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 68.05. June Euro/INR closed at 79.10, GBP/INR at 90.08 and Yen/INR at 62.34.
FII’S have sold Rs 315 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 4753 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3122 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 36066 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.83% y’day. DOW declined 103 points (-0.41%) y’day.Nikkei declined 1.77% and Hang seng declined 2.78% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1578 , Pound at 1.3161,Yen at 110.11.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1275 and WT1Crude at USD 65.08.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.93% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.88%.
Economic news: Indian Equity indices declined in tandem with Global stocks,unnerved by US-China trade war intensification. Rupee declined, as Oil majors bought USD. FPI outflows and broad USD strength against majors also contributed to Rupee fall. Rupee is just 1% short of its lifetime lows of 68.90 against USD.
Trump ordered Trade Representative to identify USD 200B of Chinese products for additional 10% tariffs, in response to China’s retaliation on Section 301 tariffs. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded by vowing to fight US blackmail that deviates from the consensus reached during the trade talks in the past few months.
China’s PBoC Governor said recent stock market volatility is emotion-driven and urged investors to stay calm. He referred to the -3.78% decline in the Shanghai Composite today. He added that resilience of the Chinese economy has increased.
ECB Chief maintained a very dovish tone y’day. In a speech, he said that monetary policy will be calibrated and called for patience, prudence and persistence. He said that though EU economy is on a growth path and inflation is moving towards its objective, durability of growth outlook is at risk.
Data Highlights: US building permits declined marginally to 1.3 mn and housing starts climbs to 1.35 mn.
Wednesday’s calendar: US existing home sales.
| USD/INR | 68.38 | 67.98 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1578 | 1.1644 | 1.1531 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3161 | 1.3273 | 1.3151 |
| USD/JPY | 110.11 | 110.21 | 109.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1588 | 1.1645 | 1.1701 | 1.1758 | 1.1532 | 1.1475 | 1.1419 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3199 | 1.3247 | 1.3321 | 1.3369 | 1.3125 | 1.3077 | 1.3003 |
| USD/JPY | 109.95
|
110.34 | 110.60 | 110.99
|
109.69 | 109.30 | 109.04
|
| USD/INR | 68.24 | 68.51 | 68.65 | 68.10 | 67.83 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3205/1.3050 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | SIDE | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.78/67.30 | 68.40 | UP | SIDE<67.78 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.60. 50 day moving average is at 67.02. 200 day moving average is at 65.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is at 68.40/68.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 68.30,S1:68.16, S2:67.88, R1:68.58, R2:68.72.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.10. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75.
