USDINR opened at 76.10 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.84-76.10 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.84 , gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.78. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.97 y’day. June USD/INR closed at 75.95, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.89. June Euro/INR closed at 85.87, GBP/INR at 95.88 and Yen/INR at 70.64.  

FII’S have nett bought Rs 21635 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett sold Rs 2193 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.72% on Friday. DOW climbed 477 points (1.90%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.74% and Hang seng declined 0.73% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.1256,Pound at 1.2542,Yen at 107.36.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1737 and WT1Crude at USD 36.48/Brent at USD 38.95.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.70% and 3 m libor closed at 0.34%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.79%.

Economic news: :- USD/INR pair hit 76.10. However the weakness is unconvincing considering USD loss against majors in last few weeks. RBI’S USD buying at 75.10 levels has put a strong floor for USDINR pair. FX reserves is closer to USD 500 bn. RBI is mopping inflows to control volatility at a later time due to fear of bigger than expected economic damage caused by the pandemic. World bank has projected Indian economy to contract -3.2% this fiscal. Fitch has said that after contracting this Year, Indian economy could bounce back to 9.5% growth next year, if situation does not deteriorate further. S&P retained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook, saying that while risks to growth are rising, the economy and fiscal position will stabilise and begin to recover from 2021 onwards.                        

Financial markets risk aversion eased off after Thursday’s big slump. Focus will be on US retail sales data to be released later this week.

Data highlights : EU industrial production declined -17.1% m/m.

-UK industrial production declined -20.3% m/m and manufacturing production declined -24.3% m/m.

Monday’s calendar: US Ny mfrg index.                  

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.64. 50 day moving average is at 75.84.200 day moving average is at 72.70. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 75.05. Important support is at 75.05/74.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP:76.02 ,S1:75.79, S2:75.64, R1:76.17, R2: 76.40                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1425. Major support is at 1.1145 and later at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0750. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2075 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2275. Important resistance is at 1.2810. Important support is at 1.24 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110. Next important resistance is at 108.45. Important support is at 106.

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