FX MORNING UPDATE 

USDINR opened at 75.51 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.42-75.60 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.59 , loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.61. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.47 y’day. June USD/INR closed at 75.66, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.71. June Euro/INR closed at 86.08, GBP/INR at 96.66 and Yen/INR at 70.50.  

FII’S have nett bought Rs 16875 Cr of Indian Equities in June . FII’S have nett sold Rs 681 Cr of Indian debt securities in June. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.69% Y’day. DOW declined 282 points (1.04%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.15% and Hang seng declined 0.03% Y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1386,Pound at 1.2743,Yen at 107.          

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1742 and WT1Crude at USD 38.70/Brent at USD 40.90.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.75% and 3 m libor closed at 0.34%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.78%.

Economic news: Fed officials at their policy meeting on Wednesday said U.S. gross domestic product is expected to decline 6.5% this year. They also flagged the need to keep the key interest rate near zero through at least 2022.

Data highlights : US CPI declined -0.1% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar:-            US weekly jobless claims and PPI                            

USD/INR   75.60 75.42
EUR/USD 1.1386 1.1422 1.1328
GBP/USD 1.2743 1.2751 1.2711
USD/JPY 107 107.88 106.90

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1372 1.1416 1.1466 1.1510 1.1322 1.1278 1.1228
GBP/USD 1.2744 1.2782 1.2851 1.2889 1.2675 1.2637 1.2568
USD/JPY 107.26

 

107.62 108.23 108.59 106.65 106.29 105.67

 

USD/INR 75.53 75.65 75.72   75.46 75.34

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1145/1.1020 1.15 UP DN<1.0950
GBP/USD 1.2355/1.2075 1.2730 SIDE UP>1.2730
USD/JPY 108.10 111.70 UP DN<108.10
USD/INR 74.90 75.60/75.80/76 SIDE UP>76.10
USD/CHF 0.95 0.98/0.99 DN UP>0.98

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.60. 50 day moving average is at 75.82.200 day moving average is at 72.50. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.05/74.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP:75.63 ,S1:75.54, S2:75.44, R1:75.74, R2: 75.82                          

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.15. Major support is at 1.1145 and later at 1.1020. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0750. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is below 200 day major moving average.Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2075 and weekly MACD is  in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2275. Important resistance is at 1.2740. Important support is at 1.2350 and later at 1.2075.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 108.10.

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