USDINR opened at 75.03 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.02-75.53 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.48 , gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.36. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.58 y’day. June USD/INR closed at 75.35, loss of 40 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.75. June Euro/INR closed at 84.09, GBP/INR at 94.43 and Yen/INR at 69.89. RBI buying helped USD to climb back from 75.02 levels.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 11796 Cr of Indian Equities in May . FII’S have nett sold Rs 20653 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.56% y’day. DOW climbed 527 points (2.05%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.29% and Hang seng climbed 1.37% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1222,Pound at 1.2540,Yen at 108.89.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1704 and WT1Crude at USD 36.85/Brent at USD 39.84.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.746% and 3 m libor closed at 0.34%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.81%.
Economic news: ECB meeting is the focus event for the day. US ISM(non mfrg) was better than expected, impling only a possible economic growth contraction of -1.1% annualised. Global markets continued to rally on lock down optimism.
Data highlights : US ISM(non mfrg) rose to 45.4, ADP employment report showed only -2760k contraction in private sector jobs in May, well below prior months -19557k and factory orders declined -13% m/m.
-EU PPI declined -2% m/m and unemployment rate rose to 7.3% (11.9 mn jobless). PMI(composite) declined to 31.9, implying -9% GDP contraction in 2020. PMI(services) was finalised at 30.5.
-UK PMI(services) was in deep contraction at 29.
Thursday’s calendar:- US Weekly jobless claims
-EU PMI(services), retail sales
-UK PMI(construction)
| USD/INR | 75.53 | 75.02 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1222 | 1.1257 | 1.1180 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2540 | 1.2615 | 1.2554 |
| USD/JPY | 108.89 | 109.04 | 108.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1224 | 1.1268 | 1.1301 | 1.1345 | 1.1191 | 1.1147 | 1.1114 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2581 | 1.2608 | 1.2643 | 1.2670 | 1.2547 | 1.2519 | 1.2485 |
| USD/JPY | 108.82
|
109.21 | 109.43 | 109.82 | 108.60 | 108.21 | 107.99
|
| USD/INR | 75.34 | 75.67 | 75.85 | 75.15 | 74.83 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0725/1.0650 | 1.1145 | UP | DN<1.0725 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2075/1.1940 | 1.2650 | DN | UP>1.2650 |
| USD/JPY | 106/105.15/103.10 | 109.40/111.70 | DN | UP>109.40 |
| USD/INR | 74.90 | 75.60/75.80/76 | SIDE | UP>76.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96/0.95 | 0.98/0.99 | DN | UP>0.96 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 75.64. 50 day moving average is at 75.70.200 day moving average is at 72.35. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.25/74.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP:75.52 ,S1:75.33, S2:74.99, R1:75.86, R2: 76.05
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0725 and later at 1.0650. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0750. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0650.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2075 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650. Important support is at 1.2075 and later at 1.1940.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 106. Next important resistance is at 109.40 and later at 111.75. Important support is at 106/105.10.
