18/06/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 67.89 on Friday and the pair traded in the 67.88-68.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.01, gain of 38 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.63.RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.97. June USD/INR closed at 68.09, gain of 36 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.72. June Euro/INR closed at 79, GBP/INR at 90.46 and Yen/INR at 61.57.
FII’S have sold Rs 315 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 4753 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 3122 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 36066 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.09% on Friday. DOW declined 84 points (-0.34%) on Friday.Nikkei climbed 0.50% and Hang seng declined 0.43% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1610, Pound at 1.3277,Yen at 110.66.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1282 and WT1Crude at USD 64.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.92% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.89%.
Economic news: Indian exports grew at 20.18% to USD 28.8 bn, highest growth rate in 6 months. Imports climbed 15% to USD 43.42 bn. Trade deficit expanded to USD 14.62 bn. Oil imports climbed to USD 11.5 bn.
US President imposed 25% tariff on USD 50 bn worth of Chinese imports and China retaliated in equal strength and vowed to deal the issue through WTO.
Data Highlights: :- US industrial production declined -0.1% m/m, Ny mfrg index climbed to 25 and TIC puchases was higher at USD 93.5 bn.
-EU CPI climbed 1.9% y/y.
Monday’s calendar:No major economic data release.
| USD/INR | 68.03 | 67.88 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1610 | 1.1627 | 1.1543 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3277 | 1.3298 | 1.3211 |
| USD/JPY | 110.66 | 110.90 | 110.38 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1593 | 1.1643 | 1.1677 | 1.1559 | 1.1509 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3262 | 1.3313 | 1.3349 | 1.3226 | 1.3175 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.64
|
110.90 | 111.15 |
|
110.38 | 110.12 |
|
| USD/INR | 67.97 | 68.06 | 68.12 | 67.91 | 67.82 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3205/1.3050 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 108.10/107.78 | 111.40/113.75 | SIDE | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.30/66.85 | 68.40 | UP | SIDE<67.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9575 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.59. 50 day moving average is at 66.83. 200 day moving average is at 65.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is at 68.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 68.04,S1:67.96, S2:67.84, R1:68.16, R2:68.24.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 108.10. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 111.40 and later at 113.75.
