FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 75.44 on Friday and the pair traded in the 75.26-75.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.55 , loss of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.73. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.44 on Friday. May USD/INR closed at 75.72, loss of 32 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.04. May Euro/INR closed at 82.10, GBP/INR at 93.70 and Yen/INR at 71.19. Indian 10 Year G-SEC Yield slumped below 6%.
FII’S have nett bought Rs 15864 Cr of Indian Equities in May . This is due to block deal in HUL shares through book buiding process. FII’S have nett sold Rs 541 Cr of Indian debt securities in May. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.57% on Friday. DOW climbed 455 points (1.91%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 2.56% and Hang seng climbed 1.04% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0839,Pound at 1.2386,Yen at 106.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1705 and WT1Crude at USD 24.60/Brent at USD 31.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.682% and 3 m libor closed at 0.44%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 5.97%.
Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment dropped by -20.5m in April. The over-the-month decline is that largest on record since 1939. Employment dropped to the lowest level since February 2011. Unemployment rate surged to 14.7%. This is the highest rate and largest over-the month increase in history of the series started back in January 1948.
US markets shrugged off job losses worry and climbed. Nasdaq index is already in bullish mode. S&P 500 is nearing a new bull trend.
Data highlights : As above
Monday’s calendar:- No major data release.
| USD/INR | 75.61 | 75.26 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0839 | 1.0876 | 1.0814 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2440 | 1.2469 | 1.2350 |
| USD/JPY | 106.67 | 106.75 | 106.22 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0843 | 1.0872 | 1.0905 | 1.0810 | 1.0781 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2419 | 1.2489 | 1.2539 | 1.2369 | 1.23 | ||
| USD/JPY | 106.54
|
106.87 | 107.07 | 106.33 | 106.01 |
|
|
| USD/INR | 75.47 | 75.68 | 75.82 | 75.33 | 75.12 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0725/1.0650 | 1.1050/1.1145 | SIDE | UP>1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2245 | 1.2650/1.2820 | SIDE | DN<1.2245 |
| USD/JPY | 106/105.15/103.10 | 109.40/111.70 | DN | UP>109.40 |
| USD/INR | 75.25/74.90 | 75.80/76.10 | SIDE | UP>76.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.98/0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.13. 50 day moving average is at 74.65.200 day moving average is at 71.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 74.90/74.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP:75.62 ,S1:75.39, S2:75.07, R1:75.94, R2: 76.17
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1050 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0725 and later at 1.0650. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0725. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2245 and later at 1.2165.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106/105.10.
