USDINR opened at 75.73 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 75.65-75.81 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.73 , gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.63. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.69 on Wednesday. May USD/INR closed at 76.04, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.92. May Euro/INR closed at 82.18, GBP/INR at 94.06 and Yen/INR at 71.55. FX market was closed y’day.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3096 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 6241 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.78% y’day. DOW climbed 211 points (0.89%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.28% and Hang seng declined 0.52% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0845,Pound at 1.2386,Yen at 106.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1725 and WT1Crude at USD 24/Brent at USD 30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.66% and 3 m libor closed at 0.47%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.03%.
Economic news: US ADP report showed -20,236k losses in private sector jobs in April.
EU GDP is projected to contract -7.4% in 2020, then rebound by 6.1% in 2021. Inflation would drop to 0.6% in 2020, then climb back to 1.3% in 2021. Unemployment rate would surge to 9.0% in 2020, then fall back to 7.9% in 2021.
BoE kept interest rate unchanged at 0.10% as widely expected, with unanimous vote. Asset purchase target was held at GBP 645B, but by 7-2 vote.
Data highlights : US ADP employment report showed loss of 20 mn jobs, Weekly jobless claims was reported at 3169 k (3.16 mn filed for unemployment benefits).
-German factory orders declined -15.6% m/m, EU PMI(services) was reported at 12 and retail sales declined -11.2% m/m, German industrial production declined -9.2% m/m.
Friday’s calendar:- US non farm payrolls
| USD/INR | 75.81 | 75.65 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0845 | 1.0835 | 1.0766 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2386 | 1.2418 | 1.2265 |
| USD/JPY | 106.38 | 106.67 | 105.99 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0812 | 1.0858 | 1.0881 | 1.0927 | 1.0789 | 1.0743 | 1.0720 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2349 | 1.2433 | 1.2501 | 1.2585 | 1.2280 | 1.2197 | 1.2128 |
| USD/JPY | 106.31
|
106.63 | 106.99 | 107.31 | 105.95 | 105.63 | 105.27
|
| USD/INR | 75.73 | 75.81 | 75.89 | 75.65 | 75.57 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0875/1.0725 | 1.1050/1.1145 | SIDE | UP>1.1050 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2245 | 1.2650/1.2820 | SIDE | DN<1.2245 |
| USD/JPY | 106.30/105.15 | 109.40/111.70 | DN | UP>109.40 |
| USD/INR | 74.90/74.40 | 76.10 | SIDE | UP>76.25 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.98/0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.16. 50 day moving average is at 74.57.200 day moving average is at 71.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 74.90/74.40. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for May contract are:
PP:75.97 ,S1:75.84, S2:75.65, R1:76.16, R2: 76.29
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1050 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0875 and later at 1.0725. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0725. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2245 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2245 and later at 1.2165.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.25/105.90
