USDINR opened gap down at 75.16 on Friday and the pair traded in the 74.93-75.21 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.10 , loss of 57 ps for USD as against prior close of 75.67. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.11 on Friday. May USD/INR closed at 75.28, loss of 63 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.91. May Euro/INR closed at 81.85, GBP/INR at 94.22 and Yen/INR at 70.63.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3096 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 6241 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 3.21% on Friday. DOW declined 622 points (2.215%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 2.84 % and Hang seng climbed 0.28% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0985,Pound at 1.2504,Yen at 106.94.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1710 and WT1Crude at USD 19.70/Brent at USD 26.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.642% and 3 m libor closed at 0.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.11%.
Economic news: ECB kept interest rates unchanged. Marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. ECB President said that Eurozone is “facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime”. While GDP shrank by -3.8% qoq, “sharp downturn in economic activity in April suggests that the impact is likely to be even more severe in the second quarter”. Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections indicate that GDP could contract by between -5% and -12% in 2020.
Eurozone GDP contracted -3.8% qoq in Q1, larger than expectation of -3.3% qoq. EU GDP contracted -3.5% qoq. These were the sharpest decline since the series started in 1995.
US President renewed his threat of tariff on Chinese imports as an accountable measure for the pandemic.
Data highlights : US ISM (mfrg) declined to 41.5, in deep contraction mode. Construction spending climbed 0.9% m/m.
US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 3839 k, personal income dropped -2% m/m, spending declined -7.5% m/m and Chicago PMI
-German retail sales declined -5.6% m/m, EU CPI estimate declined to 0.4% y/y and unemployment rate rose to 7.4%.
Monday’s calendar:US factory orders
-EU sentix investor confidence and PMI(mfrg)
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.10. 50 day moving average is at 74.30.200 day moving average is at 71.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 74.90/74.40. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76 ,S1:75.70, S2:75.50, R1:76.20, R2: 76.50
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 200 day major moving average. Next Major resistance is at 1.1050 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0875 and later at 1.0725. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0725. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned sideways and is between major moving averages.Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2245 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2245 and later at 1.2165.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.25/105.90