USDINR opened at 75.98 y’day and the pair traded in the 75.60-75.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 75.67 , loss of 51 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.18. RBI reference rate was fixed at 75.69 y’day. May USD/INR closed at 75.91, loss of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.14. May Euro/INR closed at 82.36, GBP/INR at 94.12 and Yen/INR at 71.26.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3020 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 4778 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.06% y’day. DOW declined 32 points (0.13%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.06 % and Hang seng climbed 0.28% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0850,Pound at 1.2468,Yen at 106.53.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1725 and WT1Crude at USD 14.20/Brent at USD 23.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.616% and 3 m libor closed at 0.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.14%.
Economic news: Rupee gained to 75.55 on the back of sustained gains in Indian Equity indices and weakness in USD index.
US Q 1 GDP shrank -4.8% annualised. Personal consumption expenditures fell by 7.6% annualized, led by a 16.1% drop in durable goods and a 10.2% drop in services. Exports fell 8.7% and imports fell and even larger 15.3%
Data highlights : US Pending home sales declined -20.8% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar: US Weekly jobless claims, personal income, spending and Chicago PMI
-German retail sales, EU CPI and unemployment rate.
-ECB Meeting.
| USD/INR | 75.99 | 75.60 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.0850 | 1.0890 | 1.0810 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2468 | 1.2519 | 1.2404 |
| USD/JPY | 106.53 | 107.35 | 106.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0840 | 1.0870 | 1.0920 | 1.0950 | 1.0790 | 1.0760 | 1.0710 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2449 | 1.2494 | 1.2564 | 1.2610 | 1.2379 | 1.2334 | 1.2264 |
| USD/JPY | 106.93 | 107.30 | 107.72 | 108.10 | 106.51 | 106.14 | 105.72 |
| USD/INR | 75.75 | 75.90 | 76.14 | 75.51 | 75.36 | ||
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0780/1.0665 | 1.10/1.1145 | DN | UP>1.10 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2165/1.1935 | 1.2665/1.2820 | SIDE | DN<1.2165 |
| USD/JPY | 106.90/105.15 | 109.40/111.70 | UP | DN<106.90 |
| USD/INR | 75.55/75.30 | 75.98/76.25 | SIDE | UP>76.25 |
| USD/CHF | 0.96 | 0.99 | DN | UP>0.99 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.12. 50 day moving average is at 74.23.200 day moving average is at 71.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.55/75.30. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76 ,S1:75.70, S2:75.50, R1:76.20, R2: 76.50
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.
