FX MORNING UPDATE

 

 

USDINR opened at 76.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 76.12-76.44 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.18 , loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.24. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.37 y’day. May USD/INR closed at 76.14, loss of 39 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.53. May Euro/INR closed at 82.71, GBP/INR at 94.78 and Yen/INR at 71.29. 

FII’S have nett sold Rs 3020 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 4778 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 1.06% y’day. DOW declined 32 points (0.13%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 2.71% % and Hang seng climbed 1.88% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0850,Pound at 1.2468,Yen at 106.53.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1725 and WT1Crude at USD 14.20/Brent at USD 23.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.616% and 3 m libor closed at 0.89%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.14%.

Economic news: US merchandise trade deficit widened 7.2% mom to USD 64.2B in March, up from February’s USD 59.9B. Exports of goods dropped USD -9.1B to USD 127.6B. Imports of goods dropped USD -4.8B to US 19.9B. 

German think tank Ifo said that Germany’s GDP should have dropped by -1.9% in Q1 and would contract -12.2% in Q2. Overall, the economy is likely to shrink by -6.6% in this calendar year. 

US FOMC decision and GDP data are awaited.

 

Data highlights : :- US House price index climbed 3.5% y/y and consumer confidence dipped to 86.9.

Wednesday’s calendar: US GDP, Pending home sales and FOMC meeting.

USD/INR 76.44 76.12
EUR/USD 1.0850 1.0890 1.0810
GBP/USD 1.2468 1.2519 1.2404
USD/JPY 106.53 107.35 106.56

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.0840 1.0870 1.0920 1.0950 1.0790 1.0760 1.0710
GBP/USD 1.2449 1.2494 1.2564 1.2610 1.2379 1.2334 1.2264
USD/JPY 106.93 107.30 107.72 108.10 106.51 106.14 105.72
USD/INR 76.24 76.37 76.56 76.04 75.91

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.0780/1.0665 1.10/1.1145 DN UP>1.10
GBP/USD 1.2165/1.1935 1.2665/1.2820 SIDE DN<1.2165
USD/JPY 106.90/105.15 109.40/111.70 UP DN<106.90
USD/INR 75.95/75.55 76.50/76.85 SIDE UP>76.50
USD/CHF 0.96 0.99 DN UP>0.99

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.12. 50 day moving average is at 74.14.200 day moving average is at 71.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.95. Spot closed below its average level of the day. 

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are: 

PP:76.30 ,S1:75.87, S2:75.60, R1:76.56, R2: 77                                 

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.

GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below major moving averages.Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90./Please call us for clarifications/ (Sridhar S R)                        

 

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