15/06/2018

USDINR opened at 67.56 y’day and the pair traded in the 67.55-67.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 67.63, loss of  1 ps for USD as against prior close of 67.64. RBI reference rate was fixed at 67.69. June USD/INR closed at 67.72, loss of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 67.75. June Euro/INR closed at 80.11, GBP/INR at 90.95 and Yen/INR at 61.58.

FII’S have bought Rs 2756 Cr of Indian Equities in June till date . FII’S have sold 475 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 6194 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 31788 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 0.45% y’day. DOW declined 25 points (-0.10%) Y’day.Nikkei declined 0.99%  and Hang seng declined 0.93% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1566, Pound at 1.3251,Yen at 110.69.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1305 and WT1Crude at USD 66.92.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.95% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.95%.        

Economic news: ECB announced that it is ending asset puchase program this Year, but maintained that rates will remain low till mid 2019. Growth projections was revised lower. Asset purchasing tapering will begin in Sept and end completely in Dec.     ECB projects annual GDP growth to be at 2.1% in 2018, that’s notable downward revision from March projection of 2.4%. For 2019 and 2020, GDP projections were kept unchanged at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. On the other hand, HICP inflation is projected to be 1.7% in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That’s notably revised up from March projection of 1.4% in 2018, 1.4% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.                                                                                                  

US President is expected to announce tariffs on Chinese products under Sec 301.

Data Highlights: :- US Weekly jobless claims declined to 218k and Core retail sales climbed 0.9% m/m.

-UK retail sales climbed 1.3% m/m.

Friday’s calendar:US industrial production, Ny mfrg index and TIC puchases

-EU CPI

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 67.55. 50 day moving average is at 66.83. 200 day moving average is at 64.66. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 68.42 . Important support zone is at 66.85. Important resistance is  at 67.80 and later at 68.40. Spot closed at its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 67.72,S1:67.63, S2:67.54, R1:67.81, R2:67.90.

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1840 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3205 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3450 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3205 and later at 1.3050.          

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.40. Important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is  111.40 and later at 113.75.