USDINR opened at 76.30 on Friday and the pair traded in the 76.16-76.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 76.45 , gain of 38 ps for USD as against prior close of 76.07. RBI reference rate was fixed at 76.41 on Friday. Apr USD/INR closed at 76.28, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 76.11. April Euro/INR closed at 82.25, GBP/INR at 94.30 and Yen/INR at 70.88.
FII’S have nett sold Rs 3020 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have nett sold Rs 4778 Cr of Indian debt securities in April. In FY 19-20, FII’s have sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.71% on Friday. DOW climbed 260 points (1.11%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.86% and Hang seng declined 0.61% on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.0821,Pound at 1.2369,Yen at 107.51.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1745 and WT1Crude at USD 17/Brent at USD 22.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 0.59% and 3 m libor closed at 0.99%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.17%.
Economic news: Indian FX reserves swelled to USD 480 bn, still short of record highs of USD 487 bn. In a shocking move, Franklin Templeton stopped outflows of redemption in 6 debt funds.
US durable goods orders dropped -14.4% mom in March, to USD 213.2B, worse than expectation of -12.0% mom. Germany Ifo Business Climates dropped to 74.3 in April, down from 85.9, missed expectation of 79.8. That’s the lowest level on record, and the steepest monthly decline.
Data highlights : :- US Durables order declined -14.4% m/m.
-German Ifo survey declined to 74.3.
-UK retail sales declined -5.1% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day moving average. 20 day moving average is at 76.10. 50 day moving average is at 73.95.200 day moving average is at 71.60. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 76.90. Important support is at 75.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP:76.19 ,S1:75.89, S2:75.68, R1:76.40, R2: 76.70
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.10 and later at 1.1150. Major support is at 1.0770 and later at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.10. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.15.
GBP/USD: The pair has turned bearish and is below major moving averages.Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3515. Important resistance is at 1.2650/1.2820. Important support is at 1.2165 and later at 1.1935.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 109.40. Next important resistance is at 111.75. Important support is at 106.90/105.90.